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Circular-Statistics-Based Estimators and Tests for the Index Parameter α of Distributions for High-Volatility Financial Markets

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  • Ashis SenGupta

    (Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur 721302, India
    Department of Population Health Sciences, MCG, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912-4900, USA
    Department of Statistics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara 06800, Turkey)

  • Moumita Roy

    (Department of Statistics, Midnapore College (Autonomous), Midnapore 721101, India)

Abstract

The distributions for highly volatile financial time-series data are playing an increasingly important role in current financial scenarios and signal analyses. An important characteristic of such a probability distribution is its tail behaviour, determined through its tail thickness. This can be achieved by estimating the index parameter of the corresponding distribution. The normal and Cauchy distributions, and, sometimes, a mixture of the normal and Cauchy distributions, are suitable for modelling such financial data. The family of stable distributions can provide better modelling for such financial data sets. Financial data in high-volatility markets may be better modelled, in many cases, by the Linnik distribution in comparison to the stable distribution. This highly flexible family of distributions is better capable of modelling the inflection points and tail behaviour compared to the other existing models. The estimation of the tail thickness of heavy-tailed financial data is important in the context of modelling. However, the new probability distributions do not admit any closed analytical form of representation. Thus, novel methods need to be developed, as only a few can be found in the literature. Here, we recall a recent novel method, developed by the authors, based on a trigonometric moment estimator using circular distributions. The linear data may be transformed to yield circular data. This transformation is solely for yielding a suitable estimator. Our aim in this paper is to provide a review of the few existing methods, discuss some of their drawbacks, and also provide a universal ( ∀ α ∈ ( 0 , 2 ] ), efficient, and easily implementable estimator of α based on the transformation mentioned above. Novel, circular-statistics-based tests for the index parameter α of the stable and Linnik distributions are introduced and also exemplified with real-life financial data. Two real-life data sets are analysed to exemplify the methods recommended and enhanced by the authors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashis SenGupta & Moumita Roy, 2023. "Circular-Statistics-Based Estimators and Tests for the Index Parameter α of Distributions for High-Volatility Financial Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:9:p:405-:d:1237457
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Fátima Brilhante, M. & Ivette Gomes, M. & Pestana, Dinis, 2013. "A simple generalisation of the Hill estimator," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 518-535.
    3. Pakes, Anthony G., 1998. "Mixture representations for symmetric generalized Linnik laws," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 213-221, March.
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