IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/revfin/v16y2007i2p217-230.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Psychological barriers in gold prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Aggarwal, Raj
  • Lucey, Brian M.

Abstract

This paper examines for the first time the existence of psychological barriers in a variety of daily and intra‐day gold price series. This paper uses a number of statistical procedures and presents evidence of psychological barriers in gold prices. We document that prices in round numbers act as barriers with important effects on the conditional mean and variance of the gold price series around psychological barriers.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Aggarwal, Raj & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "Psychological barriers in gold prices?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 217-230.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:16:y:2007:i:2:p:217-230
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1058-3300(06)00021-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dionne, Georges & Garand, Martin, 2003. "Risk management determinants affecting firms' values in the gold mining industry: new empirical results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 43-52, April.
    2. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    3. Robert Faff & David Hillier, 2004. "An International Investigation of the Factors that Determine Conditional Gold Betas," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 473-488, August.
    4. Brian Lucey & Edel Tully, 2005. "Seasonality, Risk And Return In Daily COMEX Gold And Silver Data 1982-2002," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp057, IIIS.
    5. De Ceuster, Marc J. K. & Dhaene, Geert & Schatteman, Tom, 1998. "On the hypothesis of psychological barriers in stock markets and Benford's Law," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 263-279, September.
    6. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-748, September.
    7. Donaldson, R.G., 1990. "International Evidence On Psychological Barriers In Asset Prices And The Efficient Market Hypothesis," Papers 116, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    8. Marshall, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 1994. "Employing conditional variance processes to examine the market efficiency of the gold rates of return," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 355-365, December.
    9. Murray Frank & Thanasis Stengos, 1989. "Measuring the Strangeness of Gold and Silver Rates of Return," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(4), pages 553-567.
    10. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    11. O. Beelders, 2003. "An investigation of the unconditional distribution of South African stock index returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 623-633.
    12. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    13. James Barney Marsh, 1983. "Keynes on the Supply of Gold: A Statistical Test," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 7-12, Jan-Mar.
    14. Adrian E. Tschoegl, 1988. "The source and consequences of stop orders: A conjecture," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 83-85, March.
    15. Donaldson, R.G., 1990. "Psychological Barriers In Asset Prices, Rationality And The Efficient Market Hypothesis," Papers 114, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    16. Bailey, Warren Bernard, 1987. "An Empirical Investigation of the Market for Comex Gold Futures Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1187-1194, December.
    17. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
    18. Tufano, Peter, 1996. "Who Manages Risk? An Empirical Examination of Risk Management Practices in the Gold Mining Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1097-1137, September.
    19. Cyree, Ken B. & Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A. & Yobaccio, Elizabeth J., 1999. "Evidence of psychological barriers in the conditional moments of major world stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 73-91, June.
    20. Jun Cai & Yan‐Leung Cheung & Michael C. S. Wong, 2001. "What moves the gold market?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 257-278, March.
    21. Joep Sonnemans, 2003. "Price Clustering and Natural Resistance Points in the Dutch Stock Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-043/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Koedijk, Kees G. & Stork, Philip A., 1994. "Should we care? psychological barriers in stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 427-432, April.
    23. Davidson, Sinclair & Faff, Robert & Hillier, David, 2003. "Gold factor exposures in international asset pricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 271-289, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Júlio Lobão & Natércia Fortuna & Franklin Silva, 2020. "Do psychological barriers exist in Latin American stock markets?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 29-56, October.
    2. Mitchell, Jason & Izan, H.Y., 2006. "Clustering and psychological barriers in exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 318-344, October.
    3. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Klein, Christian, 2009. "Psychological barriers in European stock markets: Where are they?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 268-285.
    4. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "Noise Traders? Trigger Rates, FX Options, and Smiles," Kiel Working Papers 970, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Li, Jun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2012. "Investor attention, psychological anchors, and stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 401-419.
    6. J˙lio Lob„o & Margarida Couto, 2019. "Are there Psychological Barriers in Asian Stock Markets?," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 15(1), pages 83-106.
    7. Raj Aggarwal, 2004. "Persistent Puzzles in International Finance and Economics," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 241-250.
    8. Ken B. Cyree & Dale L. Domian & David A. Louton & Elizabeth J. Yobaccio, 1999. "Evidence of psychological barriers in the conditional moments of major world stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 73-91.
    9. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    10. Li, Dan & Liu, Lixin & Xu, Guangli, 2023. "Psychological barriers and option pricing in a local volatility model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Markus Noth & Martin Weber, 2003. "Information Aggregation with Random Ordering: Cascades and Overconfidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 166-189, January.
    12. Ocean Fan Lu & David Giles, 2010. "Benford's Law and psychological barriers in certain eBay auctions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1005-1008.
    13. Christian Bauer & Bernhard Herz, 2004. "Technical trading and the volatility of exchange rates," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 399-415.
    14. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    15. Woodhouse, Sam Alan & Singh, Harminder & Bhattacharya, Sukanto & Kumar, Kuldeep, 2016. "Invisible walls: Do psychological barriers really exist in stock index levels?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 267-278.
    16. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Gaye Hatice Gencer & Zafer Musoglu, 2014. "Volatility Modeling and Forecasting of Istanbul Gold Exchange (IGE)," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 87-101, April.
    18. Makoto Nirei & Theodoros Stamatiou & Vladyslav Sushko, 2012. "Stochastic Herding in Financial Markets Evidence from Institutional Investor Equity Portfolios," BIS Working Papers 371, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66, March.
    20. Gyamfi-Yeboah, Frank & Ling, David C. & Naranjo, Andy, 2012. "Information, uncertainty, and behavioral effects: Evidence from abnormal returns around real estate investment trust earnings announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1930-1952.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:16:y:2007:i:2:p:217-230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.