IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i5p276-d1149225.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Stochastic Markov Chain for Estimating New Entrants into Professional Pension Funds

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Fiori Maccioni

    (Department of Economic and Business Sciences, University of Cagliari, Via Sant’Ignazio 74, 09123 Cagliari, Italy)

Abstract

This paper presents a stochastic Markov chain model for estimating new entrants into professional orders and their related pension funds. The model considers the interactions between demographic, socio-economic and regulatory variables. The intuition behind it is that, in the medium term, trends in academic education can anticipate changes in the job market and preferences for highly skilled professions. Similarly, in the long term, fertility trends can anticipate the number of future young adults, thus influencing the overall occupational structure of employment. The model has been formalized mathematically and successfully validated by backtesting over historical data. The model’s predictions have been compared with the observed data of new entrants into the Italian order of chartered accountants (CNDCEC) between 2012 and 2021. The related professional pension fund (CNPADC) has also been analyzed under the additional assumption of stochastic returns with an evaluation of the impact of future new chartered accountants on its demographic and financial evolution between 2020 and 2070.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Fiori Maccioni, 2023. "A Stochastic Markov Chain for Estimating New Entrants into Professional Pension Funds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:5:p:276-:d:1149225
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/5/276/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/5/276/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
    2. Menoncin, Francesco, 2005. "Cyclical risk exposure of pension funds: A theoretical framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 469-484, June.
    3. Jeffrey R. Cohen & Derek W. Dalton & Lori L. Holder-Webb & Jeffrey J. McMillan, 2020. "An Analysis of Glass Ceiling Perceptions in the Accounting Profession," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 17-38, June.
    4. Haynes, Kathryn, 2017. "Accounting as gendering and gendered: A review of 25 years of critical accounting research on gender," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 110-124.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amondarain, Josune & Aldazabal, M. Edurne & Espinosa-Pike, Marcela, 2023. "Gender differences in the auditing stereotype and their influence on the intention to enter the profession," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    2. Didia, Lydia N. & Flasher, Renee, 2021. "Beyond the top seven firms: Gender diversity of audit firm partners and their undergraduate accounting faculty," Journal of Accounting Education, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    3. Peytcheva, Marietta, 2023. "He, him, his: Masculine language in professional guidance and assessed equity and inclusion of women and LGBTQ+ people in the profession," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    4. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    5. Bitbol-Saba, Nathalie & Dambrin, Claire, 2019. "“It’s not often we get a visit from a beautiful woman!” The body in client-auditor interactions and the masculinity of accountancy," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Adrian GROȘANU & Melinda-Timea FÜLÖP & Nicolae MĂGDAȘ, 2024. "Ethical Dilemmas in Digital Accounting: A Comprehensive Literature Review," CECCAR Business Review, Body of Expert and Licensed Accountants of Romania (CECCAR), vol. 5(4), pages 56-67, April.
    7. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    8. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 43-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gilbert, Christine & Everett, Jeff & de Castro Casa Nova, Silvia Pereira, 2024. "Patriarchy, capitalism, and accounting: A herstory," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Kurek Bartosz & Górowski Ireneusz, 2020. "Gender and Age as Determinants of Expected Rate of Return on Human Capital," Journal of Management and Business Administration. Central Europe, Sciendo, vol. 28(4), pages 30-50, December.
    11. Flici, Farid, 2020. "Muti-Scenarios Population Projection for Algeria using R," MPRA Paper 119600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    13. Ghattas, Peter & Soobaroyen, Teerooven & Marnet, Oliver, 2021. "Charting the development of the Egyptian accounting profession (1946–2016): An analysis of the State-Profession dynamics," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. José-Joaquín del-Pozo-Antúnez & Horacio Molina-Sánchez & Francisco Fernández-Navarro & Antonio Ariza-Montes, 2021. "Accountancy as a Meaningful Work. Main Determinants from a Job Quality and Optimization Algorithm Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-14, August.
    16. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    17. Auerbach, Alan J. & Lee, Ronald, 2011. "Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 16-27.
    18. Vanella, Patrizio, 2017. "Age- and Sex-Specific Fertility in Germany until the Year 2040 - The Impact of International Migration," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-606, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    19. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454.
    20. Gabay, Daniel & Grasselli, Martino, 2012. "Fair demographic risk sharing in defined contribution pension systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 657-669.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:5:p:276-:d:1149225. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.