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Geopolitical Risks and Yield Dynamics in the Australian Sovereign Bond Market

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  • Milan Christian De Wet

    (Department of Accountancy, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park 2006, South Africa)

Abstract

Geopolitical risks and shocks such as military conflicts, terrorist attacks, and war tensions are known to cause significant economic downturns. The main purpose of this paper is to determine the dynamics between Australian sovereign bond yields and geopolitical risk. This is achieved by employing a quantile regression analysis. The findings of this study indicate that the impact of geopolitical risk on Australian sovereign yield dynamics is asymmetrical. Furthermore, an increase in geopolitical risk only impacts short-term yields at extreme regimes. However, the impact is, by and large, insignificant. On the other hand, an increase in geopolitical risk does have a statistically significant positive impact on medium- and long-term yields across most quantiles. Lastly, an increase in geopolitical risk tends to result in a steeper yield curve at the belly of the curve but causes the yield curve to flatten at the long end. This study is the first study that holistically examines the dynamics between geopolitical risk and Australian sovereign bond yields. The study thereby contributes to the body of knowledge on Australian bond yields, specifically, and adds to the sparse body of knowledge on the dynamics between geopolitical risk and sovereign bond yields. The findings of this study have implications for monetary policy makers, given that shifts in sovereign bond yields could impact all three core mandates of the Australian Reserve Bank. Furthermore, changes in the slope of the yieldcurve could be used by monetary policy makers to pre-empt changes in future economic growth. The results of this study also relate to fiscal policy formulation, given that yields directly impact the cost of government borrowing. Lastly, portfolio managers could benefit from the results of this study, as these results provide information on the ability of Australian sovereign bonds to hedge against geopolitical risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Christian De Wet, 2023. "Geopolitical Risks and Yield Dynamics in the Australian Sovereign Bond Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:144-:d:1076268
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati, 2011. "Political and Fiscal Risk Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 251-263, May.
    2. Le, Anh-Tuan & Tran, Thao Phuong, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk matter for corporate investment? Evidence from emerging countries in Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
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    1. Theodoros Bratis & Georgios P. Kouretas & Nikiforos T. Laopodis & Prodromos Vlamis, 2024. "Sovereign credit and geopolitical risks during and after the EMU crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3692-3712, July.
    2. Liu, Fangying & Qin, Chuan & Qin, Meng & Stefea, Petru & Norena-Chavez, Diego, 2024. "Geopolitical risk: An opportunity or a threat to the green bond market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Alshammari, Saad & Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Kaabia, Olfa & Mohamed, Kamel Si & Urom, Christian, 2024. "The interplay among corporate bonds, geopolitical risks, equity market, and economic uncertainties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    4. Reitumetse Ngcobo & Milan Christian De Wet, 2024. "The Impact of Financial Development and Economic Growth on Renewable Energy Supply in South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-24, March.

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