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Is There Any Witching in the Cryptocurrency Market?

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Plastun

    (Department of International Economic Relations, Sumy State University, 40000 Sumy, Ukraine)

  • Ludmila Khomutenko

    (Department of International Economic Relations, Sumy State University, 40000 Sumy, Ukraine)

  • Serhii Bashlai

    (Department of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Sumy National Agrarian University, 40000 Sumy, Ukraine)

Abstract

This paper explores price effects caused by the expiration of derivatives in the cryptocurrency market. Applying different statistical tests (ANOVA, Mann–Whitney, and t -tests) and econometric methods (the modified cumulative abnormal return approach, regression analysis with dummy variables, and the trading simulation approach) to daily and weekly Bitcoin data over the period 2018–2021, the following hypotheses are tested: (H1) Expiration days create patterns in price behavior in the cryptocurrency market; and (H2) Price patterns can be exploited to generate abnormal profits from trading. The results suggest that expiration effects are only nominally present in the cryptocurrency market. There are differences in returns between expiration-related periods and average returns, but these differences are statistically insignificant. The only case in which an anomaly was detected was related to abnormally high returns during the week of expiration: returns during such weeks were positive in 65% of cases, and were on average 5 times higher than during usual weeks. Trading strategies based on this fact were able to generate results different from those of random trading, with a Sharpe ratio above 1. This is evidence in favor of the existence of a real price anomaly, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, and this could be implemented in the practice of traders and investors by creating trading strategies based on detected price effects or special technical analysis indicators to generate trading signals. For academics, these results might provide an opportunity to improve time series forecasting analysis in the case of Bitcoin.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Plastun & Ludmila Khomutenko & Serhii Bashlai, 2022. "Is There Any Witching in the Cryptocurrency Market?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:2:p:92-:d:754404
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chung, Huimin & Hseu, Mei-Maun, 2008. "Expiration day effects of Taiwan index futures: The case of the Singapore and Taiwan Futures Exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 107-120, April.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2023. "Witching days and abnormal profits in the us stock market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2182016-218, December.
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    4. Christian Schlag, 1996. "Expiration day effects of stock index derivatives in Germany," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(1), pages 69-95, March.
    5. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2020. "Expiration day effects on European trading volumes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1603-1638, April.
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    9. Hsieh, Shu-Fan & Ma, Tai, 2009. "Expiration-day effects: Does settlement price matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 290-300, March.
    10. Gurmeet Singh & Muneer Shaik, 2020. "Re-examining the Expiration Effects of Index Futures: Evidence from India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 16-23.
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