IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v14y2021i9p445-d635810.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market Behavior in the Face of Political Violence: Evidence from Tsarist Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher A. Hartwell

    (International Management Institute, Department of International Business, ZHAW School of Management and Law, 8400 Winterthur, Switzerland
    Department of International Management, Kozminski University, 03-301 Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

Even efficient financial markets may break down under periods of prolonged stress, especially when the ramification of an event is unclear. Political violence is such an event, sending immediate signals about possible impact on firm valuations but unclear information about the future viability of existing institutions. This paper examines the effect of political violence in 19th century Russia on its stock market; using a battery of unit root and variance ratio tests, the evidence is that Russian financial markets were mostly efficient in processing short-term information from political violence. However, when violence was at its peak between the assassination of the Tsar in 1881 and the 1905 revolution, large deviations from efficiency can be detected, as markets were unsure about the viability of the existing rules of the game.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher A. Hartwell, 2021. "Market Behavior in the Face of Political Violence: Evidence from Tsarist Russia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:9:p:445-:d:635810
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/9/445/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/9/445/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ceyda Aktan & Perihan Iren & Tolga Omay, 2019. "Market development and market efficiency: evidence based on nonlinear panel unit root tests," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(11), pages 979-993, July.
    2. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    3. Andrey Ukhov, 2003. "Financial Innovaton and Russian Government Debt Before 1918," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm390, Yale School of Management.
    4. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
    5. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    6. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2016. "Impact of terrorist attacks on stock market volatility in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 184-202.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
    9. Anagnostidis, P. & Varsakelis, C. & Emmanouilides, C.J., 2016. "Has the 2008 financial crisis affected stock market efficiency? The case of Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 116-128.
    10. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2009. "Efficiency in the Australian stock market, 1875-2006: a note on extreme long-run random walk behaviour," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 301-306.
    11. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    12. Jesús Otero & Jeremy Smith, 2017. "Response surface models for OLS and GLS detrending-based unit-root tests in nonlinear ESTAR models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(3), pages 704-722, September.
    13. Kian‐Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2011. "The Evolution Of Stock Market Efficiency Over Time: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 69-108, February.
    14. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2010. "Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 49-58, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher A. Hartwell & Paul M. Vaaler, 2023. "The Price of Empire: Unrest Location and Sovereign Risk in Tsarist Russia," Papers 2309.06885, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Short-term predictability of equity returns along two style dimensions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 675-685.
    3. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    4. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and profitability of trading rules: Evidence from a developing country," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 315-332.
    5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    6. Kim, Jae & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Stanley, T. D., 2014. "Market efficiency in Asian and Australasian stock markets: a fresh look at the evidence," Working Papers eco_2014_9, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    7. Aggarwal, Divya, 2019. "Do bitcoins follow a random walk model?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 15-22.
    8. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    9. Fong, Wai Mun, 2010. "A stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1237-1246, June.
    10. Laura Raisa Miloş & Cornel Haţiegan & Marius Cristian Miloş & Flavia Mirela Barna & Claudiu Boțoc, 2020. "Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) of Stock Market Indexes. Empirical Evidence from Seven Central and Eastern European Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    11. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4267-4272, November.
    12. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.
    13. Shyh-wei Chen, 2009. "Random walks in asian foreign exchange markets:evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1296-1307.
    14. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Fouilloux, Jessica, 2011. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 27-35, January.
    15. Graham Smith, 2009. "Martingales in European emerging stock markets: Size, liquidity and market quality," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 249-262.
    16. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 117-126, June.
    17. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Valera, Maria Luisa G., 2021. "Mean reversion in Asia-Pacific stock prices: New evidence from quantile unit root tests," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 214-230.
    18. Siddique, Maryam, 2023. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Exist in Equity Market? Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," OSF Preprints 9b5dx, Center for Open Science.
    19. Joao Sousa Andrade & Irina Syssoyeva-Masson, 2016. "Investigating the presence of long memory in debt series and its relation with growth," EcoMod2016 9627, EcoMod.
    20. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    21. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jessica Fouilloux, 2010. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis in the EU ETS Markets for the CO2 Emission Allowances: Evidence from Phase I and Phase II," Post-Print hal-00797491, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:9:p:445-:d:635810. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.