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Bitcoin Return Volatility Forecasting: A Comparative Study between GARCH and RNN

Author

Listed:
  • Ze Shen

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA)

  • Qing Wan

    (Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA)

  • David J. Leatham

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA)

Abstract

One of the notable features of bitcoin is its extreme volatility. The modeling and forecasting of bitcoin volatility are crucial for bitcoin investors’ decision-making analysis and risk management. However, most previous studies of bitcoin volatility were founded on econometric models. Research on bitcoin volatility forecasting using machine learning algorithms is still sparse. In this study, both conventional econometric models and a machine learning model are used to forecast the bitcoin’s return volatility and Value at Risk. The objective of this study is to compare their out-of-sample performance in forecasting accuracy and risk management efficiency. The results demonstrate that the RNN outperforms GARCH and EWMA in average forecasting performance. However, it is less efficient in capturing the bitcoin market’s extreme events. Moreover, the RNN shows poor performance in Value at Risk forecasting, indicating that it could not work well as the econometric models in explaining extreme volatility. This study proposes an alternative method of bitcoin volatility analysis and provides more motivation for economic researchers to apply machine learning methods to the less volatile financial market conditions. Meanwhile, it also shows that the machine learning approaches are not always more advanced than econometric models, contrary to common belief.

Suggested Citation

  • Ze Shen & Qing Wan & David J. Leatham, 2021. "Bitcoin Return Volatility Forecasting: A Comparative Study between GARCH and RNN," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:7:p:337-:d:597599
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shay Kee Tan & Kok Haur Ng & Jennifer So-Kuen Chan, 2022. "Predicting Returns, Volatilities and Correlations of Stock Indices Using Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive Range and Return Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Theo Berger & Jana Koubová, 2024. "Forecasting Bitcoin returns: Econometric time series analysis vs. machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2904-2916, November.
    3. Andrei-Dragos Popescu, 2021. "Assessing Portfolio Risks Involving Bitcoin and Ethereum Using Vector Autoregressive Model," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 1101-1109, December.
    4. Cheng, Jiyang & Tiwari, Sunil & Khaled, Djebbouri & Mahendru, Mandeep & Shahzad, Umer, 2024. "Forecasting Bitcoin prices using artificial intelligence: Combination of ML, SARIMA, and Facebook Prophet models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. Fernando Moreno-Pino & Stefan Zohren, 2022. "DeepVol: Volatility Forecasting from High-Frequency Data with Dilated Causal Convolutions," Papers 2210.04797, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    6. Mamoona Zahid & Farhat Iqbal & Dimitrios Koutmos, 2022. "Forecasting Bitcoin Volatility Using Hybrid GARCH Models with Machine Learning," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Anoop C V & Neeraj Negi & Anup Aprem, 2023. "Bayesian framework for characterizing cryptocurrency market dynamics, structural dependency, and volatility using potential field," Papers 2308.01013, arXiv.org.

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