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Optimism in Financial Markets: Stock Market Returns and Investor Sentiments

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  • Chiara Limongi Concetto

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, 39100 Bolzano, Italy
    Sparkasse—Cassa di Risparmio, 39100 Bolzano, Italy)

  • Francesco Ravazzolo

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, 39100 Bolzano, Italy
    Centre for Applied Macro and Commodity Prices, BI Norwegian Business School, 0484 Oslo, Norway)

Abstract

This paper investigates how investor sentiment affects stock market returns and evaluates the predictability power of sentiment indices on U.S. and EU stock market returns. As regards the American example, evidence shows that investor sentiment indices have an economic and statistical predictability power on stock market returns. Concerning the European market instead, investigation provides weak results. Moreover, comparing the two markets, where investor sentiment of U.S. market tries to predict the European stock market returns, and vice versa, the analyses indicate a spillover effect from the U.S. to Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Limongi Concetto & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Optimism in Financial Markets: Stock Market Returns and Investor Sentiments," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-14, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:2:p:85-:d:230648
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Mauro Bernardi & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2020. "Bayesian Econometrics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-2, October.
    3. A. Fronzetti Colladon & S. Grassi & F. Ravazzolo & F. Violante, 2020. "Forecasting financial markets with semantic network analysis in the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2009.04975, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    4. Andrea Fronzetti Colladon & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Francesco Violante, 2023. "Forecasting financial markets with semantic network analysis in the COVID‐19 crisis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1187-1204, August.
    5. Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021. "Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
    6. Tihana Škrinjarić & Branka Marasović & Boško Šego, 2021. "Does the Croatian Stock Market Have Seasonal Affective Disorder?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2023. "Sentiment Regimes and Reaction of Stock Markets to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 365-381, July.
    8. Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury, 2023. "Spillover of Sentiments Between the GCC Stock Markets," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(6), pages 1434-1453, December.
    9. Pedro M. Nogueira Reis, 2022. "Determinants of Qualified Investor Sentiment during the COVID-19 Pandemic in North America, Asia, and Europe," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.
    10. Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik & Ondrej Badura, 2021. "Does Sentiment Affect Stock Returns? A Meta-analysis Across Survey-based Measures," Working Papers 2021/10, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian econometrics; portfolio choice; sentiments; stock market predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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