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Statistical Arbitrage in Cryptocurrency Markets

Author

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  • Thomas Günter Fischer

    (Department of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, 90403 Nürnberg, Germany
    Current address: University of Erlangen-Nurnberg, Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Lange Gasse 20, 90403 Nurnberg, Germany.)

  • Christopher Krauss

    (Department of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, 90403 Nürnberg, Germany)

  • Alexander Deinert

    (Department of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, 90403 Nürnberg, Germany)

Abstract

Machine learning research has gained momentum—also in finance. Consequently, initial machine-learning-based statistical arbitrage strategies have emerged in the U.S. equities markets in the academic literature, see e.g., Takeuchi and Lee ( 2013 ); Moritz and Zimmermann ( 2014 ); Krauss et al. ( 2017 ). With our paper, we pose the question how such a statistical arbitrage approach would fare in the cryptocurrency space on minute-binned data. Specifically, we train a random forest on lagged returns of 40 cryptocurrency coins, with the objective to predict whether a coin outperforms the cross-sectional median of all 40 coins over the subsequent 120 min. We buy the coins with the top-3 predictions and short-sell the coins with the flop-3 predictions, only to reverse the positions after 120 min. During the out-of-sample period of our backtest, ranging from 18 June 2018 to 17 September 2018, and after more than 100,000 trades, we find statistically and economically significant returns of 7.1 bps per day, after transaction costs of 15 bps per half-turn. While this finding poses a challenge to the semi-strong from of market efficiency, we critically discuss it in light of limits to arbitrage, focusing on total volume constraints of the presented intraday-strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Günter Fischer & Christopher Krauss & Alexander Deinert, 2019. "Statistical Arbitrage in Cryptocurrency Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:31-:d:205554
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chowdhury, Reaz & Rahman, M. Arifur & Rahman, M. Sohel & Mahdy, M.R.C., 2020. "An approach to predict and forecast the price of constituents and index of cryptocurrency using machine learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    2. Schnaubelt, Matthias, 2020. "Deep reinforcement learning for the optimal placement of cryptocurrency limit orders," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2020, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    3. Jorge Guijarro-Ordonez & Markus Pelger & Greg Zanotti, 2021. "Deep Learning Statistical Arbitrage," Papers 2106.04028, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    4. Paz Grimberg & Tobias Lauinger & Damon McCoy, 2020. "Empirical Analysis of Indirect Internal Conversions in Cryptocurrency Exchanges," Papers 2002.12274, arXiv.org.
    5. Omer Berat Sezer & Mehmet Ugur Gudelek & Ahmet Murat Ozbayoglu, 2019. "Financial Time Series Forecasting with Deep Learning : A Systematic Literature Review: 2005-2019," Papers 1911.13288, arXiv.org.
    6. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2020. "Is Bitcoin Similar to Gold? An Integrated Overview of Empirical Findings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, May.
    7. repec:eme:jalpps:jal-02-2023-0023 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jia, Yuecheng & Wu, Yangru & Yan, Shu & Liu, Yuzheng, 2023. "A seesaw effect in the cryptocurrency market: Understanding the return cross predictability of cryptocurrencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Fabian Waldow & Matthias Schnaubelt & Christopher Krauss & Thomas Günter Fischer, 2021. "Machine Learning in Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-14, March.
    10. Christian M. Hafner, 2020. "Alternative Assets and Cryptocurrencies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-3, January.
    11. Ao Shu & Feiyang Cheng & Jianlei Han & Zini Liang & Zheyao Pan, 2023. "Arbitrage across different Bitcoin exchange venues: Perspectives from investor base and market related events," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(5), pages 5183-5210, December.
    12. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Recent Advancements in Section “Financial Technology and Innovation”," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-2, December.
    13. ANGHEL, Dan-Gabriel, 2021. "A reality check on trading rule performance in the cryptocurrency market: Machine learning vs. technical analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    14. Kasper Johansson & Thomas Schmelzer & Stephen Boyd, 2024. "Finding Moving-Band Statistical Arbitrages via Convex-Concave Optimization," Papers 2402.08108, arXiv.org.
    15. Bruzgė, Rasa & Šapkauskienė, Alfreda, 2022. "Network analysis on Bitcoin arbitrage opportunities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Schnaubelt, Matthias, 2022. "Deep reinforcement learning for the optimal placement of cryptocurrency limit orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(3), pages 993-1006.
    17. Schnaubelt, Matthias & Fischer, Thomas G. & Krauss, Christopher, 2020. "Separating the signal from the noise – Financial machine learning for Twitter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

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