IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijfss/v7y2019i4p58-d272725.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock Price Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Financial Magazines

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Tiberius

    (Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, 14482 Potsdam, Germany)

  • Laura Lisiecki

    (Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, 14482 Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract

In this study, we analyze the forecast accuracy and profitability of buy recommendations published in five major German financial magazines for private households based on fundamental analysis. The results show a high average forecast accuracy but with a very high standard deviation, which indicates poor forecast accuracy with regard to individual stocks. The recommendation profitability slightly exceeds the performance of the MSCI World index. Considering the involved risk, which is represented by a high standard deviation, the excess returns appear to be insufficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Tiberius & Laura Lisiecki, 2019. "Stock Price Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Financial Magazines," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-8, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:7:y:2019:i:4:p:58-:d:272725
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/7/4/58/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/7/4/58/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    2. Brad M. Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Brett Trueman, 2010. "Ratings Changes, Ratings Levels, and the Predictive Value of Analysts’ Recommendations," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 533-553, June.
    3. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
    4. Hall, Jason L. & Tacon, Paul B., 2010. "Forecast accuracy and stock recommendations," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 18-33.
    5. Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, February.
    6. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
    7. Beneish, Messod D, 1991. "Stock Prices and the Dissemination of Analysts' Recommendations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 393-416, July.
    8. Casey Dougal & Joseph Engelberg & Diego García & Christopher A. Parsons, 2012. "Journalists and the Stock Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(3), pages 639-679.
    9. Lloyd-Davies, Peter & Canes, Michael, 1978. "Stock Prices and the Publication of Second-Hand Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 43-56, January.
    10. Daniel Bradley & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu, 2017. "Before an Analyst Becomes an Analyst: Does Industry Experience Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 751-792, April.
    11. Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, June.
    12. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Grossman, Seth, 1986. "Discrete Expectational Data and Portfolio Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 699-713, July.
    13. Bjerring, James H & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1983. "Stock Prices and Financial Analysts' Recommendations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 187-204, March.
    14. Kenneth R. Ahern & Denis Sosyura, 2015. "Rumor Has It: Sensationalism in Financial Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(7), pages 2050-2093.
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1083-1124 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. "Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-1836, December.
    17. Kwon, Sung S, 2002. "Financial Analysts' Forecast Accuracy and Dispersion: High-Tech versus Low-Tech Stocks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 65-91, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laura Studen & Victor Tiberius, 2020. "Social Media, Quo Vadis? Prospective Development and Implications," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, August.
    2. Joana Almeida & Raquel M. Gaspar, 2021. "Accuracy of European Stock Target Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-27, September.
    3. Tiberius, Victor & Gojowy, Robin & Dabić, Marina, 2022. "Forecasting the future of robo advisory: A three-stage Delphi study on economic, technological, and societal implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano Bonini & Laura Zanetti & Roberto Bianchini & Antonio Salvi, 2010. "Target Price Accuracy in Equity Research," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1177-1217, November.
    2. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael & Au, Andrea, 2004. "Information Content of Equity Analyst Reports," Working papers 4264-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    3. Paul Asquith & Michael B. Mikhail & Andrea S. Au, 2002. "Information Content of Equity Analyst Reports," NBER Working Papers 9246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Birru, Justin & Gokkaya, Sinan & Liu, Xi & Stulz, Rene M., 2019. "Are Analyst Trade Ideas Valuable?," Working Paper Series 2019-15, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    5. Hall, Jason L. & Tacon, Paul B., 2010. "Forecast accuracy and stock recommendations," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 18-33.
    6. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    7. Moshirian, Fariborz & Ng, David & Wu, Eliza, 2009. "The value of stock analysts' recommendations: Evidence from emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 74-83, March.
    8. Raj Aggarwal & Dev Mishra & Craig Wilson, 2018. "Analyst recommendations and the implied cost of equity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 717-743, April.
    9. Lawrence D. Brown & Andrew C. Call & Michael B. Clement & Nathan Y. Sharp, 2015. "Inside the “Black Box” of Sell‐Side Financial Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 1-47, March.
    10. Ruben M.T. Peixinho & Richard J. Taffler, 2011. "Are analysts misleading investors? The case of goingconcern opinions," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2011_22, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    11. Kumar, Alok & Rantala, Ville & Xu, Rosy, 2022. "Social learning and analyst behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 434-461.
    12. Peter F. Pope & Tong Wang, 2023. "Analyst ability and research effort: non-EPS forecast provision as a research quality signal," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1263-1315, September.
    13. R. Bellando & Z. Ben Braham & S. Galanti, 2016. "The profitability of financial analysts’ recommendations: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(46), pages 4410-4418, October.
    14. Ryan, Paul & Taffler, Richard J., 2006. "Do brokerage houses add value? The market impact of UK sell-side analyst recommendation changes," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 371-386.
    15. Cheolwoo Lee, 2013. "Analyst firm parent–subsidiary relationship and conflict of interest: evidence from IPO recommendations," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(3), pages 763-789, September.
    16. Oya Altınkılıç & Vadim S. Balashov & Robert S. Hansen, 2013. "Are Analysts' Forecasts Informative to the General Public?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2550-2565, November.
    17. Marina Balboa & J. Carlos Gómez‐Sala & Germán López‐Espinosa, 2009. "The Value of Adjusting the Bias in Recommendations: International Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 208-230, January.
    18. Savor, Pavel G., 2012. "Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 635-659.
    19. Serkan Karadas & Jorida Papakroni, 2019. "Local predictive ability of analyst recommendations," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 351-371, July.
    20. Altınkılıç, Oya & Balashov, Vadim S. & Hansen, Robert S., 2019. "Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 98-119.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:7:y:2019:i:4:p:58-:d:272725. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.