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The Effects of Interest Rates on Bank Risk-Taking in South Africa: Do Cyclical and Location Asymmetries Matter?

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  • Clement Moyo

    (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha 6019, South Africa)

  • Andrew Phiri

    (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha 6019, South Africa)

Abstract

We examine the nonlinear relationship between interest rates on bank risk-taking behavior in South Africa between 2008:q1 and 2022:q3 using nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) and quantile autoregressive distributive lag (QARDL) models. Whilst the preliminary estimates from linear ARDL produce results adhering to conventional theory, the NARDL and QARDL analysis shows that the relationship between the variables is more complex. On one hand, the NARDL model shows that the phase of monetary policy (cyclical asymmetries) is important in determining the pass-through effects of interest rates on bank risk behavior. We find that both contractionary and expansionary monetary policy increases long-term risk through decreased liquidity for the former and increased non-performing loans for the latter. On the other hand, the QARDL model shows that the level of bank risk behavior (location asymmetries) is also important in determining the impact of interest rates on bank risk behavior. We find that interest rates affect bank risk behavior in ‘medium-to-high risk environments’ for unsecured loans and lending and in ‘medium-to-low risk environments’ for liquidity. Overall, these results enable us to recommend ways in which the SARB can strengthen its monitoring mechanisms given the multifaceted impact of interest rates on bank risk-taking.

Suggested Citation

  • Clement Moyo & Andrew Phiri, 2024. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Bank Risk-Taking in South Africa: Do Cyclical and Location Asymmetries Matter?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:12:y:2024:i:2:p:49-:d:1397941
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Altunbas, Yener & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2010. "Does monetary policy affect bank risk-taking?," Working Paper Series 1166, European Central Bank.
    2. Jacob A. Bikker & Tobias M. Vervliet, 2018. "Bank profitability and risk†taking under low interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 3-18, January.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Alin Marius ANDRIES & Vasile COCRIS & Ioana PLESCAU, 2015. "Low Interest Rates And Bank Risk-Taking: Has The Crisis Changed Anything? Evidence From The Eurozone," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 15, pages 125-148, June.
    5. Mr. Heiko Hesse & Mr. Ken Miyajima, 2022. "South Africa: The Financial Sector-Sovereign Nexus," IMF Working Papers 2022/051, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Olga Bohachova, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Risks in the Banking Sector: A Cross-Country Empirical Assessment," IAW Discussion Papers 44, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
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