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Human Health Risk Assessment due to Global Warming – A Case Study of the Gulf Countries

Author

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  • Tahir Husain

    (Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5 Canada)

  • Junaid Rafi Chaudhary

    (Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5 Canada)

Abstract

Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25°E to 61.875°E and latitude 9.278°N to 27.833°N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC.The preliminary assessment indicates increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, thermal stress, and increased frequency of infectious vector borne diseases in the region between 2070 and 2099.

Suggested Citation

  • Tahir Husain & Junaid Rafi Chaudhary, 2008. "Human Health Risk Assessment due to Global Warming – A Case Study of the Gulf Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-9, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:204-212:d:3625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan A. Patz & Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum & Tracey Holloway & Jonathan A. Foley, 2005. "Impact of regional climate change on human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 310-317, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyle R. Turner & Katarzyna Alderman & Des Connell & Shilu Tong, 2013. "Motivators and Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change-Related Health Risks in Environmental Health Impact Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Zhenya Li & Zulfiqar Ali & Tong Cui & Sadia Qamar & Muhammad Ismail & Amna Nazeer & Muhammad Faisal, 2022. "A comparative analysis of pre- and post-industrial spatiotemporal drought trends and patterns of Tibet Plateau using Sen slope estimator and steady-state probabilities of Markov Chain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 547-576, August.

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