Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Suicide Mortality in Brazil: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

This study analyzed the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates among Brazilian residents, stratified by sex. It examined monthly suicide rates using interrupted time series analysis. Researchers compared the months before the pandemic (January 2017 to February 2020) with those after the first diagnosed case of COVID-19 in Brazil (March 2020 to December 2023). They applied an interrupted time series model (quasi-Poisson) to account for serial autocorrelation in the residuals and seasonality. During this period, authorities reported 102,081 suicides in Brazil. The age-standardized annual suicide rate among men was 3.71 times higher than the rate among women (12.33 suicides per 100,000 vs. 3.32 suicides per 100,000 women). The South and Midwest regions had the highest standardized annual average suicide rates. Suicide rates among men dropped abruptly at the pandemic’s onset (RR < 1, p < 0.05). However, Black men, women aged 15 to 19 years, and elderly individuals exhibited a significant increase (RR > 1, p < 0.05). Over time, suicide rates rose across most age groups, regions, and methods studied (RR > 1, p < 0.05). The pandemic’s impact differed significantly between men and women based on stratification variables. Nonetheless, a progressive upward trend emerged throughout the pandemic.