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Forecasting Frequent Alcohol Use among Adolescents in HBSC Countries: A Bayesian Framework for Making Predictions

Author

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  • Lorena Charrier

    (Department of Public Health and Pediatrics, University of Torino, 10126 Torino, Italy)

  • Michela Bersia

    (Department of Public Health and Pediatrics, University of Torino, 10126 Torino, Italy
    Post Graduate School of Medical Statistics, University of Torino, 10126 Torino, Italy)

  • Alessio Vieno

    (Department of Developmental and Social Psychology, University of Padova, 35131 Padova, Italy)

  • Rosanna Irene Comoretto

    (Department of Public Health and Pediatrics, University of Torino, 10126 Torino, Italy)

  • Mindaugas Štelemėkas

    (Health Research Institute, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 47181 Kaunas, Lithuania
    Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 47181 Kaunas, Lithuania)

  • Paola Nardone

    (National Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Italian National Institute of Health, 00161 Rome, Italy)

  • Tibor Baška

    (Department of Public Health, Jessenius Faculty of Medicine in Martin, Comenius University in Bratislava, 036 01 Martin, Slovakia)

  • Paola Dalmasso

    (Department of Public Health and Pediatrics, University of Torino, 10126 Torino, Italy
    These authors equally contributed to this work.)

  • Paola Berchialla

    (Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Torino, 10043 Orbassano, Italy
    These authors equally contributed to this work.)

Abstract

(1) Aim: To summarize alcohol trends in the last 30 years (1985/6–2017/8) among 15-year-olds in Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) countries (overall sample size: 413,399 adolescents; 51.55% girls) and to forecast the potential evolution in the upcoming 2021/22 HBSC survey. (2) Methods: Using 1986–2018 prevalence data on weekly alcohol consumption among 15-year-olds related to 40 HBSC countries/regions, a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model was adopted to estimate trends making a clusterization of the countries, and to give estimates for the 2022 HBSC survey. (3) Results: An overall declining trend in alcohol consumption was observed over time in almost all the countries. However, compared to 2014, some countries showed a new increase in 2018 and 2021/22 estimates forecast a slight increase in the majority of countries, pointing out a potential bounce after a decreasing period in frequent drinking habits. (4) Conclusions: The clusterization suggested a homogenization of consumption habits among HBSC countries. The comparison between 2022 observed and expected data could be helpful to investigate the effect of risk behaviour determinants, including the pandemic impact, occurring between the last two waves of the survey.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorena Charrier & Michela Bersia & Alessio Vieno & Rosanna Irene Comoretto & Mindaugas Štelemėkas & Paola Nardone & Tibor Baška & Paola Dalmasso & Paola Berchialla, 2022. "Forecasting Frequent Alcohol Use among Adolescents in HBSC Countries: A Bayesian Framework for Making Predictions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:5:p:2737-:d:759474
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lorena Charrier & Paola Berchialla & Paola Dalmasso & Alberto Borraccino & Patrizia Lemma & Franco Cavallo, 2019. "Cigarette Smoking and Multiple Health Risk Behaviors: A Latent Class Regression Model to Identify a Profile of Young Adolescents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1771-1782, August.
    2. Susan M. Paddock & Terrance D. Savitsky, 2013. "Bayesian hierarchical semiparametric modelling of longitudinal post-treatment outcomes from open enrolment therapy groups," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 795-808, June.
    3. Chris Roberts & J. Freeman & O. Samdal & C. Schnohr & M. Looze & S. Nic Gabhainn & R. Iannotti & M. Rasmussen, 2009. "The Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study: methodological developments and current tensions," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 54(2), pages 140-150, September.
    4. Bruce Simons-Morton & Tilda Farhat & Tom Bogt & Anne Hublet & Emmanuel Kuntsche & Saoirse Nic Gabhainn & Emmanuelle Godeau & Anna Kokkevi, 2009. "Gender specific trends in alcohol use: cross-cultural comparisons from 1998 to 2006 in 24 countries and regions," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 54(2), pages 199-208, September.
    5. Donald A Brand & Michaela Saisana & Lisa A Rynn & Fulvia Pennoni & Albert B Lowenfels, 2007. "Comparative Analysis of Alcohol Control Policies in 30 Countries," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(4), pages 1-8, April.
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    1. Lorena Charrier & Rosanna Irene Comoretto & Michela Bersia & Paola Dalmasso & Emanuele Koumantakis & Alberto Borraccino & Adriana Baban & Paola Berchialla & Patrizia Lemma, 2023. "Who Stays, Who Moves on and the Host Population: A Picture of Adolescents’ Perceived Well-Being and Risk Behaviours," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-12, May.

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