IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i3p1468-d736341.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sound Decision Making in Uncertain Times: Can Systems Modelling Be Useful for Informing Policy and Planning for Suicide Prevention?

Author

Listed:
  • Jo-An Occhipinti

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
    Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia)

  • Danya Rose

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Adam Skinner

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Daniel Rock

    (Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia
    WA Primary Health Alliance, Perth, WA 6008, Australia)

  • Yun Ju C. Song

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Ante Prodan

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
    Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia
    School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia)

  • Sebastian Rosenberg

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Louise Freebairn

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
    Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia)

  • Catherine Vacher

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
    St Vincent’s Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

  • Ian B. Hickie

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the significant value of systems modelling in supporting proactive and effective public health decision making despite the complexities and uncertainties that characterise an evolving crisis. The same approach is possible in the field of mental health. However, a commonly levelled (but misguided) criticism prevents systems modelling from being more routinely adopted, namely, that the presence of uncertainty around key model input parameters renders a model useless. This study explored whether radically different simulated trajectories of suicide would result in different advice to decision makers regarding the optimal strategy to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic on mental health. Using an existing system dynamics model developed in August 2020 for a regional catchment of Western Australia, four scenarios were simulated to model the possible effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on levels of psychological distress. The scenarios produced a range of projected impacts on suicide deaths, ranging from a relatively small to a dramatic increase. Discordance in the sets of best-performing intervention scenarios across the divergent COVID-mental health trajectories was assessed by comparing differences in projected numbers of suicides between the baseline scenario and each of 286 possible intervention scenarios calculated for two time horizons; 2026 and 2041. The best performing intervention combinations over the period 2021–2041 (i.e., post-suicide attempt assertive aftercare, community support programs to increase community connectedness, and technology enabled care coordination) were highly consistent across all four COVID-19 mental health trajectories, reducing suicide deaths by between 23.9–24.6% against the baseline. However, the ranking of best performing intervention combinations does alter depending on the time horizon under consideration due to non-linear intervention impacts. These findings suggest that systems models can retain value in informing robust decision making despite uncertainty in the trajectories of population mental health outcomes. It is recommended that the time horizon under consideration be sufficiently long to capture the full effects of interventions, and efforts should be made to achieve more timely tracking and access to key population mental health indicators to inform model refinements over time and reduce uncertainty in mental health policy and planning decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jo-An Occhipinti & Danya Rose & Adam Skinner & Daniel Rock & Yun Ju C. Song & Ante Prodan & Sebastian Rosenberg & Louise Freebairn & Catherine Vacher & Ian B. Hickie, 2022. "Sound Decision Making in Uncertain Times: Can Systems Modelling Be Useful for Informing Policy and Planning for Suicide Prevention?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-15, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:3:p:1468-:d:736341
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/3/1468/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/3/1468/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jo-An Occhipinti & Adam Skinner & P. Murali Doraiswamy & Cameron Fox & Helen Herrman & Shekhar Saxena & Elisha London & Yun Ju Christine Song & Ian B. Hickie, 2021. "Mental health: build predictive models to steer policy," Nature, Nature, vol. 597(7878), pages 633-636, September.
    2. Richard Pitman & David Fisman & Gregory S. Zaric & Maarten Postma & Mirjam Kretzschmar & John Edmunds & Marc Brisson, 2012. "Dynamic Transmission Modeling," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(5), pages 712-721, September.
    3. Tom Kompas & R Quentin Grafton & Tuong Nhu Che & Long Chu & James Camac, 2021. "Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Catherine Vacher & Nicholas Ho & Adam Skinner & Jo Robinson & Louise Freebairn & Grace Yeeun Lee & Frank Iorfino & Ante Prodan & Yun Ju C. Song & Jo-An Occhipinti & Ian B. Hickie, 2022. "Optimizing Strategies for Improving Mental Health in Victoria, Australia during the COVID-19 Era: A System Dynamics Modelling Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Gigi Foster & Paul Frijters, 2024. "Hiding the elephant: The tragedy of COVID policy and its economist apologists," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 106-144, March.
    3. Rebecca Hood & Juliana Zabatiero & Desiree Silva & Stephen R. Zubrick & Leon Straker, 2021. "“Coronavirus Changed the Rules on Everything” : Parent Perspectives on How the COVID-19 Pandemic Influenced Family Routines, Relationships and Technology Use in Families with Infants," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Louise Rawlings & Jeffrey C. L. Looi & Stephen J. Robson, 2022. "Economic Considerations in COVID‐19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Refusal: A Survey of the Literature," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(321), pages 214-229, June.
    5. Klas Kellerborg & Werner Brouwer & Pieter Baal, 2020. "Costs and benefits of interventions aimed at major infectious disease threats: lessons from the literature," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(9), pages 1329-1350, December.
    6. Thomas E Delea & Derek Weycker & Mark Atwood & Dion Neame & Fabián P Alvarez & Evelyn Forget & Joanne M Langley & Ayman Chit, 2017. "Cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies for childhood immunization against meningococcal disease with monovalent and quadrivalent conjugate vaccines in Canada," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Matthew R Behrend & María-Gloria Basáñez & Jonathan I D Hamley & Travis C Porco & Wilma A Stolk & Martin Walker & Sake J de Vlas & for the NTD Modelling Consortium, 2020. "Modelling for policy: The five principles of the Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, April.
    8. Ashleigh R Tuite & Ann N Burchell & David N Fisman, 2014. "Cost-Effectiveness of Enhanced Syphilis Screening among HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Microsimulation Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-12, July.
    9. Stephanie Popping & Sebastiaan J Hullegie & Anne Boerekamps & Bart J A Rijnders & Robert J de Knegt & Jürgen K Rockstroh & Annelies Verbon & Charles A B Boucher & Brooke E Nichols & David A M C van de, 2019. "Early treatment of acute hepatitis C infection is cost-effective in HIV-infected men-who-have-sex-with-men," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Gearhart, Richard & Michieka, Nyakundi & Anders, Anne, 2023. "The effectiveness of COVID deaths to COVID policies: A robust conditional approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 376-394.
    11. Quang Dang Nguyen & Mikhail Prokopenko, 2022. "A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures," Papers 2205.08996, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    12. Pascal Crépey & Esther Redondo & Javier Díez-Domingo & Raúl Ortiz de Lejarazu & Federico Martinón-Torres & Ángel Gil de Miguel & Juan Luis López-Belmonte & Fabián P Alvarez & Hélène Bricout & Míriam S, 2020. "From trivalent to quadrivalent influenza vaccines: Public health and economic burden for different immunization strategies in Spain," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, May.
    13. Richard E Nelson & Makoto Jones & Molly Leecaster & Matthew H Samore & William Ray & Angela Huttner & Benedikt Huttner & Karim Khader & Vanessa W Stevens & Dale Gerding & Marin L Schweizer & Michael A, 2016. "An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, March.
    14. T I Armina Padmasawitri & Gerardus W Frederix & Bachti Alisjahbana & Olaf Klungel & Anke M Hövels, 2018. "Disparities in model-based cost-effectiveness analyses of tuberculosis diagnosis: A systematic review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-20, May.
    15. Xiao Zang & Houlin Tang & Jeong Eun Min & Diane Gu & Julio S G Montaner & Zunyou Wu & Bohdan Nosyk, 2016. "Cost-Effectiveness of the ‘One4All’ HIV Linkage Intervention in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, November.
    16. Beate Jahn & Sarah Friedrich & Joachim Behnke & Joachim Engel & Ursula Garczarek & Ralf Münnich & Markus Pauly & Adalbert Wilhelm & Olaf Wolkenhauer & Markus Zwick & Uwe Siebert & Tim Friede, 2022. "On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(3), pages 349-382, September.
    17. Long Chu & R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas & Mary-Louise McLaws, 2023. "Effects of Closures and Openings on Public Health in the Time of COVID-19: A Cross-Country and Temporal Trend Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    18. Grace Yeeun Lee & Julie Robotham & Yun Ju C. Song & Jo-An Occhipinti & Jakelin Troy & Tanja Hirvonen & Dakota Feirer & Olivia Iannelli & Victoria Loblay & Louise Freebairn & Rama Agung-Igusti & Ee Pin, 2022. "Partnering with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples: An Evaluation Study Protocol to Strengthen a Comprehensive Multi-Scale Evaluation Framework for Participatory Systems Modelling through I," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:3:p:1468-:d:736341. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.