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Optimizing Strategies for Improving Mental Health in Victoria, Australia during the COVID-19 Era: A System Dynamics Modelling Study

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Vacher

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
    St Vincent’s Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

  • Nicholas Ho

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Adam Skinner

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Jo Robinson

    (Orygen, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia
    Centre for Youth Mental Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3052, Australia)

  • Louise Freebairn

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
    Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia)

  • Grace Yeeun Lee

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Frank Iorfino

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Ante Prodan

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
    Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia
    School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia)

  • Yun Ju C. Song

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Jo-An Occhipinti

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
    Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia
    Joint senior authors.)

  • Ian B. Hickie

    (Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
    Joint senior authors.)

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the mental health of populations and highlighted the limitations of mental health care systems. As the trajectory of the pandemic and the economic recovery are still uncertain, decision tools are needed to help evaluate the best interventions to improve mental health outcomes. We developed a system dynamics model that captures causal relationships among population, demographics, post-secondary education, health services, COVID-19 impact, and mental health outcomes. The study was conducted in the Australian state of Victoria. The model was calibrated using historical data and was stratified by age group and by geographic remoteness. Findings demonstrate that the most effective intervention combination includes economic, social, and health sector initiatives. Assertive post-suicide attempt care is the most impactful health sector intervention, but delaying implementation reduces the potency of its impact. Some evidence-based interventions, such as population-wide community awareness campaigns, are projected to worsen mental health outcomes when implemented on their own. Systems modelling offers a powerful decision-support tool to test alternative strategies for improving mental health outcomes in the Victorian context.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Vacher & Nicholas Ho & Adam Skinner & Jo Robinson & Louise Freebairn & Grace Yeeun Lee & Frank Iorfino & Ante Prodan & Yun Ju C. Song & Jo-An Occhipinti & Ian B. Hickie, 2022. "Optimizing Strategies for Improving Mental Health in Victoria, Australia during the COVID-19 Era: A System Dynamics Modelling Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-14, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:11:p:6470-:d:824678
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    References listed on IDEAS

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