IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i21p13906-d953538.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effects of Daily Temperature on Crime Events in Urban Hanoi, Vietnam Using Seven Years of Data (2013–2019)

Author

Listed:
  • Vu Thuy Huong Le

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
    Department of Environmental Health, School of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam)

  • Jesse D. Berman

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA)

  • Quynh Anh Tran

    (Department of Environmental Health, School of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam)

  • Elizabeth V. Wattenberg

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA)

  • Bruce H. Alexander

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA)

Abstract

The effects of temperature on behavior change and mental health have previously been explored, but the association between temperature and crime is less well understood, especially in developing countries. Single-city-level data were used to evaluate the association between the short-term effects of temperature on crime events in urban Hanoi, Vietnam. We used quasi-Poisson regression models to investigate the linear effects and distributed lag non-linear models to investigate the non-linear association between daily temperature and daily crime events from 2013 to 2019. There were 3884 crime events, including 1083 violent crimes and 2801 non-violent crimes during the 7-year study period. For both linear and non-linear effects, there were positive associations between an increase in daily temperature and crime, and the greatest effects were observed on the first day of exposure (lag 0). For linear effects, we estimated that each 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.9% (95%CI: 0.2; 20.5), 6.8% (95%CI: 0.6; 13.5), and 7.5% (95%CI: 2.3; 13.2) increase in the risk of violent, non-violent, and total crime, respectively. For non-linear effects, however, the crime risk plateaued at 30 °C and decreased at higher exposures, which presented an inverted U-shape response with a large statistical uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Vu Thuy Huong Le & Jesse D. Berman & Quynh Anh Tran & Elizabeth V. Wattenberg & Bruce H. Alexander, 2022. "The Effects of Daily Temperature on Crime Events in Urban Hanoi, Vietnam Using Seven Years of Data (2013–2019)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-11, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:21:p:13906-:d:953538
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/21/13906/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/21/13906/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Malvina Bondy & Sefi Roth & Lutz Sager, 2020. "Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 555-585.
    3. Heilmann, Kilian & Kahn, Matthew E. & Tang, Cheng Keat, 2021. "The urban crime and heat gradient in high and low poverty areas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Roger D. Peng & Francesca Dominici & Thomas A. Louis, 2006. "Model choice in time series studies of air pollution and mortality," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(2), pages 179-203, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hener, Timo, 2022. "Noise pollution and violent crime☆," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Bruederle, Anna & Roberts, Gareth, 2022. "Weather and Crime—Cautious evidence from South Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2023. "Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 84-107, March.
    4. Singh, Tejendra Pratap & Visaria, Sujata, 2021. "Up in the Air: Air Pollution and Crime – Evidence from India," SocArXiv hs4xj, Center for Open Science.
    5. Artz, Benjamin & Welsch, David M., 2024. "Homelessness and Crime: An Examination of California," IZA Discussion Papers 17086, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Lohmann, Paul M. & Gsottbauer, Elisabeth & You, Jing & Kontoleon, Andreas, 2023. "Air pollution and anti-social behaviour: Evidence from a randomised lab-in-the-field experiment," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    7. Garg, Teevrat & McCord, Gordon C. & Montfort, Aleister, 2020. "Can Social Protection Reduce Environmental Damages?," IZA Discussion Papers 13247, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Yunquan Zhang & Chuanhua Yu & Jin Yang & Lan Zhang & Fangfang Cui, 2017. "Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-11, August.
    9. Ju, Heng & Tang, Yao & Zhang, Meilan, 2024. "Air Pollution's Grip: Drug Cost and Its Heterogeneity in China," MPRA Paper 121154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Carozzi, Felipe & Roth, Sefi, 2023. "Dirty density: Air quality and the density of American cities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    11. Kai Luo & Wenjing Li & Ruiming Zhang & Runkui Li & Qun Xu & Yang Cao, 2016. "Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Risk of Cardiovascular Mortality: Adjustment of the Meteorological Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Sandro Provenzano & Sefi Roth & Lutz Sager, 2024. "Air Pollution and Respiratory Infectious Diseases," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(5), pages 1127-1139, May.
    13. Behrer,Arnold Patrick & Bolotnyy,Valentin, 2022. "Heat, Crime, and Punishment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9909, The World Bank.
    14. Mišák, Vojtěch, 2024. "Does heat cause homicides? A meta-analysis," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Giorgio Gulino & Federico Masera, 2023. "Contagious Dishonesty: Corruption Scandals and Supermarket Theft," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 218-251, October.
    16. Moreno-Louzada, Luca & Menezes-Filho, Naercio, 2024. "Technical change in agriculture and homicides: The case of genetically-modified soy seeds in Brazil," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    17. Adam A. Szpiro & Lianne Sheppard & Sara D. Adar & Joel D. Kaufman, 2014. "Estimating acute air pollution health effects from cohort study data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 164-174, March.
    18. Nelly Exbrayat & Victor Stephane, 2024. "Does Urbanization Cause Crime? Evidence from Rural-Urban Migration in South Africa," Working Papers halshs-04390026, HAL.
    19. Fang Huang & Renjie Chen & Yuetian Shen & Haidong Kan & Xingya Kuang, 2016. "The Impact of the 2013 Eastern China Smog on Outpatient Visits for Coronary Heart Disease in Shanghai, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-6, June.
    20. Carozzi, Felipe & Roth, Sefi, 2019. "Dirty density: air quality and the density of American cities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:21:p:13906-:d:953538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.