IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i13p8111-d854208.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal Strategy on Radiation Estimation for Calculating Universal Thermal Climate Index in Tourism Cities of China

Author

Listed:
  • Jiandong Liu

    (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Institute of Agro-Meteorology and Ecology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Guangsheng Zhou

    (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Institute of Agro-Meteorology and Ecology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Hans W. Linderholm

    (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
    Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK)

  • Yanling Song

    (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Institute of Agro-Meteorology and Ecology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

  • De-Li Liu

    (NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, PMB, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
    Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

  • Yanbo Shen

    (Public Meteorological Service Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Yanxiang Liu

    (Public Meteorological Service Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Jun Du

    (Tibet Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science Research, Tibet Autonomous Meteorological Administration, Lhasa 850001, China)

Abstract

The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is believed to be a very powerful tool for providing information on human thermal perception in the domain of public health, but the solar radiation as an input variable is difficult to access. Thus, this study aimed to explore the optimal strategy on estimation of solar radiation to increase the accuracy in UTCI calculation, and to identify the spatial and temporal variation in UTCI over China. With daily meteorological data collected in 35 tourism cities in China from 1961 to 2020, two sunshine-based Angstrom and Ogelman models, and two temperature-based Bristow and Hargreaves models, together with neural network and support vector machine-learning methods, were tested against radiation measurements. The results indicated that temperature-based models performed the worst with the lowest NSE and highest RMSE . The machine-learning methods performed better in calibration, but the predictive ability decreased significantly in validation due to big data requirements. In contrast, the sunshine-based Angstrom model performed best with high NSE (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency) of 0.84 and low RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of 35.4 J/m 2 s in validation, which resulted in a small RMSE of about 1.2 °C in UTCI calculation. Thus, Angstrom model was selected as the optimal strategy on radiation estimation for UTCI calculation over China. The spatial distribution of UTCI showed that days under no thermal stress were high in tourism cities in central China within a range from 135 to 225 days, while the largest values occurred in Kunming and Lijiang in southwest China. In addition, days under no thermal stress during a year have decreased in most tourism cities of China, which could be attributed to the asymmetric changes in significant decrease in frost days and slightly increase in hot days. However, days under no thermal stress in summer time have indeed decreased, accompanying with increasing days under strong stress, especially in the developed regions such as Yangze River Delta and Zhujiang River Delta. Based on the study, we conclude that UTCI can successfully depict the overall spatial distribution and temporal change of the thermal environments in the tourism cities over China, and can be recommend as an efficient index in the operational services for assessing and predicting thermal perception for public health. However, extreme cold and heat stress in the tourism cities of China were not revealed by UTCI due to mismatch of the daily UTCI with category at hourly scale, which makes it an urgent task to redefine category at daily scale in the next research work.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiandong Liu & Guangsheng Zhou & Hans W. Linderholm & Yanling Song & De-Li Liu & Yanbo Shen & Yanxiang Liu & Jun Du, 2022. "Optimal Strategy on Radiation Estimation for Calculating Universal Thermal Climate Index in Tourism Cities of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-22, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:13:p:8111-:d:854208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/13/8111/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/13/8111/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mengmeng Li & Shaohua Gu & Peng Bi & Jun Yang & Qiyong Liu, 2015. "Heat Waves and Morbidity: Current Knowledge and Further Direction-A Comprehensive Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-28, May.
    2. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    3. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    4. Liu, Jiandong & Linderholm, Hans & Chen, Deliang & Zhou, Xiuji & Flerchinger, Gerald N. & Yu, Qiang & Du, Jun & Wu, Dingrong & Shen, Yanbo & Yang, Zhenbin, 2015. "Changes in the relationship between solar radiation and sunshine duration in large cities of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 589-600.
    5. Janjai, S. & Pankaew, P. & Laksanaboonsong, J., 2009. "A model for calculating hourly global solar radiation from satellite data in the tropics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(9), pages 1450-1457, September.
    6. Elizabeth G. Hanna & Peter W. Tait, 2015. "Limitations to Thermoregulation and Acclimatization Challenge Human Adaptation to Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-41, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dissanayake, Sumali & Mahadevan, Renuka & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2019. "Is there a role for trade liberalization in mitigating the impacts of climate change on agriculture?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 307-324.
    2. Nassima Amiri & Rachid Lahlali & Said Amiri & Moussa EL Jarroudi & Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza & Mohammed Messouli, 2021. "Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Kyusik Kim & Jihoon Jung & Claire Schollaert & June T. Spector, 2021. "A Comparative Assessment of Cooling Center Preparedness across Twenty-Five U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Philip Kofi Adom, 2024. "The Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries in the Next Decades," Working Papers 681, Center for Global Development.
    5. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    6. Alessandro Moro, 2021. "Can capital controls promote green investments in developing countries?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1348, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Jason F.L. Koopman & Onno Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol & Roy Brouwer, 2015. "Water Scarcity From Climate Change And Adaptation Response In An International River Basin Context," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-22.
    8. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    9. Brown, Marilyn A. & Li, Yufei & Soni, Anmol, 2020. "Are all jobs created equal? Regional employment impacts of a U.S. carbon tax," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    10. Martina S. Ragettli & Apolline Saucy & Benjamin Flückiger & Danielle Vienneau & Kees de Hoogh & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Christian Schindler & Martin Röösli, 2023. "Explorative Assessment of the Temperature–Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    11. El-Sebaii, A.A. & Al-Hazmi, F.S. & Al-Ghamdi, A.A. & Yaghmour, S.J., 2010. "Global, direct and diffuse solar radiation on horizontal and tilted surfaces in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 568-576, February.
    12. Dinar, Ariel, 2012. "Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6068, The World Bank.
    13. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2013. "Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 321-331.
    14. L. Oosterhout & E. Koks & P. Beukering & S. Schep & T. Tiggeloven & S. Manen & M. Knaap & C. Duinmeijer & S. L. Buijs, 2023. "An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Implications on Bonaire," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 147-178, July.
    15. João Tovar Jalles, 2024. "Financial Crises and Climate Change," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(1), pages 166-190, March.
    16. Guo, Jiaqi & Wang, Qiang & Li, Rongrong, 2024. "Can official development assistance promote renewable energy in sub-Saharan Africa countries? A matter of institutional transparency of recipient countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    17. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    18. Nicolas Taconet & Aurélie Méjean & Céline Guivarch, 2020. "Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 15-34, May.
    19. Zvi Baum & Ruslana Rachel Palatnik & Iddo Kan & Mickey Rapaport-Rom, 2016. "Economic Impacts of Water Scarcity Under Diverse Water Salinities," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-22, March.
    20. Tol, Richard S.J., 2012. "A cost–benefit analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 package," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 288-295.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:13:p:8111-:d:854208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.