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Predicting Spatial Patterns of Sindbis Virus (SINV) Infection Risk in Finland Using Vector, Host and Environmental Data

Author

Listed:
  • Ruut Uusitalo

    (Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Department of Veterinary Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Agnes Sjöberginkatu 2, P.O. Box 66, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Mika Siljander

    (Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland)

  • C. Lorna Culverwell

    (Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Department of Veterinary Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Agnes Sjöberginkatu 2, P.O. Box 66, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW5 7BD, UK)

  • Guy Hendrickx

    (AVIA-GIS, Risschotlei 33, 2980 Zoersel, Belgium)

  • Andreas Lindén

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), P.O. Box 2, FI-00791 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Timothée Dub

    (Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 30, FI-00271 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Juha Aalto

    (Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Jussi Sane

    (Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 30, FI-00271 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Cedric Marsboom

    (AVIA-GIS, Risschotlei 33, 2980 Zoersel, Belgium)

  • Maija T. Suvanto

    (Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Department of Veterinary Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Agnes Sjöberginkatu 2, P.O. Box 66, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Andrea Vajda

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Hilppa Gregow

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Essi M. Korhonen

    (Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Department of Veterinary Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Agnes Sjöberginkatu 2, P.O. Box 66, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Eili Huhtamo

    (Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Department of Veterinary Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Agnes Sjöberginkatu 2, P.O. Box 66, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Petri Pellikka

    (Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 4, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Olli Vapalahti

    (Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Department of Veterinary Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Agnes Sjöberginkatu 2, P.O. Box 66, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
    Virology and Immunology, Diagnostic Center, HUSLAB, Helsinki University Hospital, P.O. Box 400, FI-00029 Helsinki, Finland)

Abstract

Pogosta disease is a mosquito-borne infection, caused by Sindbis virus (SINV), which causes epidemics of febrile rash and arthritis in Northern Europe and South Africa. Resident grouse and migratory birds play a significant role as amplifying hosts and various mosquito species, including Aedes cinereus , Culex pipiens , Cx. torrentium and Culiseta morsitans are documented vectors. As specific treatments are not available for SINV infections, and joint symptoms may persist, the public health burden is considerable in endemic areas. To predict the environmental suitability for SINV infections in Finland, we applied a suite of geospatial and statistical modeling techniques to disease occurrence data. Using an ensemble approach, we first produced environmental suitability maps for potential SINV vectors in Finland. These suitability maps were then combined with grouse densities and environmental data to identify the influential determinants for SINV infections and to predict the risk of Pogosta disease in Finnish municipalities. Our predictions suggest that both the environmental suitability for vectors and the high risk of Pogosta disease are focused in geographically restricted areas. This provides evidence that the presence of both SINV vector species and grouse densities can predict the occurrence of the disease. The results support material for public-health officials when determining area-specific recommendations and deliver information to health care personnel to raise awareness of the disease among physicians.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruut Uusitalo & Mika Siljander & C. Lorna Culverwell & Guy Hendrickx & Andreas Lindén & Timothée Dub & Juha Aalto & Jussi Sane & Cedric Marsboom & Maija T. Suvanto & Andrea Vajda & Hilppa Gregow & Ess, 2021. "Predicting Spatial Patterns of Sindbis Virus (SINV) Infection Risk in Finland Using Vector, Host and Environmental Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-26, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:13:p:7064-:d:587092
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    References listed on IDEAS

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