IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i13p6760-d580759.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Author

Listed:
  • Isaac Kwesi Nooni

    (Binjiang College, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Wuxi 214105, China
    Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Guojie Wang

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Waheed Ullah

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Jiao Lu

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Shijie Li

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Mawuli Dzakpasu

    (Key Lab of Northwest Water Resources, Environment and Ecology, School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China)

  • Nana Agyemang Prempeh

    (School of Geosciences, Department of Geographic Sciences, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Sunyani P.O. Box 214, Ghana)

  • Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian

    (Binjiang College, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Wuxi 214105, China
    Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

Abstract

The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Isaac Kwesi Nooni & Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan & Guojie Wang & Waheed Ullah & Jiao Lu & Shijie Li & Mawuli Dzakpasu & Nana Agyemang Prempeh & Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian, 2021. "Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:13:p:6760-:d:580759
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/13/6760/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/13/6760/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David I Stern & Peter W Gething & Caroline W Kabaria & William H Temperley & Abdisalan M Noor & Emelda A Okiro & G Dennis Shanks & Robert W Snow & Simon I Hay, 2011. "Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-9, September.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Nigel Arnell & Ben Lloyd-Hughes, 2014. "The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 127-140, January.
    4. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    5. Martin Jung & Markus Reichstein & Philippe Ciais & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Justin Sheffield & Michael L. Goulden & Gordon Bonan & Alessandro Cescatti & Jiquan Chen & Richard de Jeu & A. Johannes Dolman, 2010. "Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7318), pages 951-954, October.
    6. Miguel A. Lovino & María Josefina Pierrestegui & Omar V. Müller & Ernesto Hugo Berbery & Gabriela V. Müller & Max Pasten, 2021. "Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-24, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    3. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    4. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    5. Alison Rothwell & Brad Ridoutt & William Bellotti, 2016. "Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Guillaume Rohat & Johannes Flacke & Hy Dao & Martin Maarseveen, 2018. "Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 619-636, December.
    7. Farahmand, Shekoofeh & Hilmi, Nathalie & Cinar, Mine & Safa, Alain & Lam, Vicky W.Y. & Djoundourian, Salpie & Shahin, Wassim & Ben Lamine, Emna & Schickele, Alexandre & Guidetti, Paolo & Allemand, Den, 2023. "Climate change impacts on Mediterranean fisheries: A sensitivity and vulnerability analysis for main commercial species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    8. Zhang, Feng & Zhang, Wenjuan & Li, Ming & Zhang, Yuan & Li, Fengmin & Li, Changbin, 2017. "Is crop biomass and soil carbon storage sustainable with long-term application of full plastic film mulching under future climate change?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 67-77.
    9. Jose A. Marengo & Ana Paula M. A. Cunha & Carlos A. Nobre & Germano G. Ribeiro Neto & Antonio R. Magalhaes & Roger R. Torres & Gilvan Sampaio & Felipe Alexandre & Lincoln M. Alves & Luz A. Cuartas & K, 2020. "Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2589-2611, September.
    10. Weiping Wang & Saini Yang & Jianxi Gao & Fuyu Hu & Wanyi Zhao & H. Eugene Stanley, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Assessing the Impact of Large‐Scale Future Floods on a Highway Transport System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1780-1794, September.
    11. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    12. Tokimatsu, Koji & Konishi, Satoshi & Ishihara, Keiichi & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2016. "Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1483-1493.
    13. Max Tesselaar & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Toon Haer & Paul Hudson & Timothy Tiggeloven & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2020. "Regional Inequalities in Flood Insurance Affordability and Uptake under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-30, October.
    14. Yann Chavaillaz & Sylvie Joussaume & Amaury Dehecq & Pascale Braconnot & Robert Vautard, 2016. "Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 187-200, July.
    15. Nie, Yaoyu & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Huang, Guorui & Ding, Qun & Yu, Le & Li, Haoran & Ji, Duoying, 2019. "Assessment of the potential and distribution of an energy crop at 1-km resolution from 2010 to 2100 in China – The case of sweet sorghum," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 395-407.
    16. Wang, Xiaowen & Li, Liang & Ding, Yibo & Xu, Jiatun & Wang, Yunfei & Zhu, Yan & Wang, Xiaoyun & Cai, Huanjie, 2021. "Adaptation of winter wheat varieties and irrigation patterns under future climate change conditions in Northern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    17. Jia-Min Jiang & Lei Jin & Lei Huang & Wen-Ting Wang, 2022. "The Future Climate under Different CO 2 Emission Scenarios Significantly Influences the Potential Distribution of Achnatherum inebrians in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, April.
    18. Gaudard, Ludovic, 2015. "Pumped-storage project: A short to long term investment analysis including climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-99.
    19. Ram Singh & K. AchutaRao, 2020. "Sensitivity of future climate change and uncertainty over India to performance-based model weighting," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 385-406, June.
    20. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1276-1291.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:13:p:6760-:d:580759. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.