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The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis

Author

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  • Benjamin Petruželka

    (Department of Addictology, First Faculty of Medicine, Charles University and General University Hospital, 128 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Miroslav Barták

    (Department of Addictology, First Faculty of Medicine, Charles University and General University Hospital, 128 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Background: This study provides insight into the impact of methamphetamine precursor regulation, which is considered to be one of the most important tools of supply reduction and a tool with potential public health impact. Methods: It is based on a longitudinal and quasi-experimental design and it investigates the changes of methamphetamine precursor regulation in Czech Republic, which is treated as a natural experiment. The statistical analysis uses features from the generalized fluctuation test framework as well as from the F test framework to estimate structural changes in the methamphetamine-related arrests and nonfatal intoxications time series. Results: The analysis identified structural breaks in the majority of the methamphetamine drug market-related time series in the period related to the tightening of regulation. The results of this study show that methamphetamine precursor regulation was associated with the proliferation of international and organized crime groups and with no change in the overall number of arrests and nonfatal intoxications. Conclusions: The precursor regulation ceteris paribus plausibly leads to the change in drug supply towards more organized groups and to an increasing involvement of foreign nationals at the drug market and is not effective in suppressing the methamphetamine market and in reducing the public health indicator of nonfatal methamphetamine intoxications.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Petruželka & Miroslav Barták, 2020. "The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-28, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:21:p:7840-:d:434956
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dobkin, Carlos & Nicosia, Nancy & Weinberg, Matthew, 2014. "Are supply-side drug control efforts effective? Evaluating OTC regulations targeting methamphetamine precursors," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 48-61.
    2. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
    3. Carlos Dobkin & Nancy Nicosia, 2009. "The War on Drugs: Methamphetamine, Public Health, and Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 324-349, March.
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