IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2019i1p79-d300296.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring Variability in Landscape Ecological Risk and Quantifying Its Driving Factors in the Amu Darya Delta

Author

Listed:
  • Tao Yu

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Anming Bao

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Wenqiang Xu

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Hao Guo

    (School of Geography and Tourism, QuFu Normal University, Rizhao 276825, China)

  • Liangliang Jiang

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Guoxiong Zheng

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Ye Yuan

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Vincent NZABARINDA

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

Abstract

Examining the drivers of landscape ecological risk can provide scientific information for planning and landscape optimization. The landscapes of the Amu Darya Delta (ADD) have recently undergone great changes, leading to increases in landscape ecological risks. However, the relationships between landscape ecological risk and its driving factors are poorly understood. In this study, the ADD was selected to construct landscape ecological risk index (ERI) values for 2000 and 2015. Based on a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, the relationship between each of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), digital elevation model (DEM), crop yield, population density (POP), and road density and the spatiotemporal variation in ERI were explored. The results showed that the ERI decreased from the periphery of the ADD to the centre and that high-risk areas were distributed in the ADD’s downstream region, with the total area of high-risk areas increasing by 86.55% from 2000 to 2015. The ERI was spatially correlated with Moran’s I in 2000 and 2015, with correlation of 0.67 and 0.72, respectively. The GWR model indicated that in most ADD areas, the NDVI had a negative impact on the ERI, whereas LST and DEM had positive impacts on the ERI. Crop yield, road density and POP were positively correlated with the ERI in the central region of the ADD, at road nodes and in densely populated urban areas, respectively. Based on the findings of this study, we suggest that the ecological constraints of the aforementioned factors should be considered in the process of delta development and protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Yu & Anming Bao & Wenqiang Xu & Hao Guo & Liangliang Jiang & Guoxiong Zheng & Ye Yuan & Vincent NZABARINDA, 2019. "Exploring Variability in Landscape Ecological Risk and Quantifying Its Driving Factors in the Amu Darya Delta," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2019:i:1:p:79-:d:300296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/1/79/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/1/79/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omaid Najmuddin & Xiangzheng Deng & Ruchira Bhattacharya, 2018. "The Dynamics of Land Use/Cover and the Statistical Assessment of Cropland Change Drivers in the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Ming Li & Guojun Zhang & Ying Liu & Yongwang Cao & Chunshan Zhou, 2019. "Determinants of Urban Expansion and Spatial Heterogeneity in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Karen C. Seto & Robert K. Kaufmann, 2003. "Modeling the Drivers of Urban Land Use Change in the Pearl River Delta, China: Integrating Remote Sensing with Socioeconomic Data," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(1), pages 106-121.
    4. Jian Gong & Jianxin Yang & Wenwu Tang, 2015. "Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, November.
    5. Chen, Minmin & Liu, Junguo, 2015. "Historical trends of wetland areas in the agriculture and pasture interlaced zone: A case study of the Huangqihai Lake Basin in northern China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 168-176.
    6. Lee, Seung Oh & Jung, Younghun, 2018. "Efficiency of water use and its implications for a water-food nexus in the Aral Sea Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 80-90.
    7. Jian Peng & Minli Zong & Yi'na Hu & Yanxu Liu & Jiansheng Wu, 2015. "Assessing Landscape Ecological Risk in a Mining City: A Case Study in Liaoyuan City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-23, June.
    8. Jialin Li & Ruiliang Pu & Hongbo Gong & Xu Luo & Mengyao Ye & Baixiang Feng, 2017. "Evolution Characteristics of Landscape Ecological Risk Patterns in Coastal Zones in Zhejiang Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-18, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yongchao Liu & Yongxue Liu & Jialin Li & Wanyun Lu & Xianglin Wei & Chao Sun, 2018. "Evolution of Landscape Ecological Risk at the Optimal Scale: A Case Study of the Open Coastal Wetlands in Jiangsu, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Yanping Yang & Jianjun Chen & Yanping Lan & Guoqing Zhou & Haotian You & Xiaowen Han & Yu Wang & Xue Shi, 2022. "Landscape Pattern and Ecological Risk Assessment in Guangxi Based on Land Use Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-20, January.
    3. Qiming Wang & Kun Yang & Lixiao Li & Yanhui Zhu, 2022. "Assessing the Terrain Gradient Effect of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Dianchi Lake Basin of China Using Geo-Information Tupu Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Di Liu & Xiaoying Liang & Hai Chen & Hang Zhang & Nanzhao Mao, 2018. "A Quantitative Assessment of Comprehensive Ecological Risk for a Loess Erosion Gully: A Case Study of Dujiashi Gully, Northern Shaanxi Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Yangfan Zhou & Lijie Pu & Ming Zhu, 2020. "Coastal Landscape Vulnerability Analysis in Eastern China—Based on Land-Use Change in Jiangsu Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Peng Tian & Jialin Li & Hongbo Gong & Ruiliang Pu & Luodan Cao & Shuyao Shao & Zuoqi Shi & Xiuli Feng & Lijia Wang & Riuqing Liu, 2019. "Research on Land Use Changes and Ecological Risk Assessment in Yongjiang River Basin in Zhejiang Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, May.
    7. He Gao & Wei Song, 2022. "Assessing the Landscape Ecological Risks of Land-Use Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-25, October.
    8. Yun Liu & Weiheng Xu & Zehu Hong & Leiguang Wang & Guanglong Ou & Ning Lu, 2022. "Assessment of Spatial-Temporal Changes of Landscape Ecological Risk in Xishuangbanna, China from 1990 to 2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    9. Lei Zhao & Zhengtao Shi & Guangxiong He & Li He & Wenfei Xi & Qin Jiang, 2023. "Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Terrain Gradients in Yuanmou Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Shekoufeh Nematollahi & Sadaf Afghari & Felix Kienast & Sima Fakheran, 2022. "Spatial Prioritization for Ecotourism through Applying the Landscape Resilience Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, September.
    11. Dong Wang & Xiang Ji & Cheng Li & Yaxi Gong, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Variations of Landscape Ecological Risks in a Resource-Based City under Transformation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, May.
    12. Chau, Nancy H. & Qin, Yu & Zhang, Weiwen, 2015. "Networked Leaders in the Shadow of the Market – A Chinese Experiment in Allocating Land Conversion Rights," Working Papers 250022, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    13. David Hidalgo García & Julián Arco Díaz & Adelaida Martín Martín & Emilio Gómez Cobos, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Thermal Effects Caused by Heat Waves through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, September.
    14. Weijia Chen & Yongquan Lu & Guilin Liu, 2022. "Balancing cropland gain and desert vegetation loss: The key to rural revitalization in Xinjiang, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 1122-1145, September.
    15. Tao Hong & Ningli Liang & Haomeng Li, 2023. "Study on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of the “Production–Living–Ecological Space” in Changfeng County," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, July.
    16. Tommaso Orusa & Annalisa Viani & Enrico Borgogno-Mondino, 2024. "Earth Observation Data and Geospatial Deep Learning AI to Assign Contributions to European Municipalities Sen4MUN: An Empirical Application in Aosta Valley (NW Italy)," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Jianglong Chen & Jinlong Gao & Feng Yuan, 2016. "Growth Type and Functional Trajectories: An Empirical Study of Urban Expansion in Nanjing, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, February.
    18. Li Li & Xiaoping Zhou & Lan Yang & Jinglong Duan & Zhuo Zeng, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Ecological Risk in China’s North–South Transition Zone," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, May.
    19. Weiguo Liu & Karen C Seto, 2008. "Using the ART-MMAP Neural Network to Model and Predict Urban Growth: A Spatiotemporal Data Mining Approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(2), pages 296-317, April.
    20. Peng Tian & Luodan Cao & Jialin Li & Ruiliang Pu & Hongbo Gong & Changda Li, 2020. "Landscape Characteristics and Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Multi-Scenario Simulations: A Case Study of Yancheng Coastal Wetland, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2019:i:1:p:79-:d:300296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.