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Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts

Author

Listed:
  • Gentille Musengimana

    (Division of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town 7505, South Africa)

  • Fidele K. Mukinda

    (Division of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town 7505, South Africa
    Centre for Health Systems and Services Research and Development, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town 7505, South Africa)

  • Roderick Machekano

    (Center for Evidence Based Health Care, Biostatistics Unit, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town 7505, South Africa)

  • Hassan Mahomed

    (Division of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town 7505, South Africa
    Metro District Health Services, Western Cape Government: Health, Cape Town 7505, South Africa)

Abstract

This paper describes the relationship between temperature change and diarrhoea in under five-year-old children in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area (CTMA) of South Africa. The study used climatic and aggregated surveillance diarrhoea incidence data of two peak periods of seven months each over two consecutive years. A Poisson regression model and a lagged Poisson model with autocorrelation was performed to test the relationship between climatic parameters (minimum and maximum temperature) and incidence of diarrhoea. In total, 58,617 cases of diarrhoea occurred in the CTMA, which is equivalent to 8.60 cases per 100 population under five years old for the study period. The mixed effect overdispersed Poisson model showed that a cluster adjusted effect of an increase of 5 °C in minimum and maximum temperature results in a 40% (Incidence risk ratio IRR: 1.39, 95% CI 1.31–1.48) and 32% (IRR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.22–1.41) increase in incident cases of diarrhoea, respectively, for the two periods studied. Autocorrelation of one-week lag (Autocorrelation AC 1) indicated that a 5 °C increase in minimum and maximum temperature led to 15% (IRR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.09–1.20) and 6% (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01–1.12) increase in diarrhoea cases, respectively. In conclusion, there was an association between an increase in minimum and maximum temperature, and the rate at which diarrhoea affected children under the age of five years old in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area. This finding may have implications for the effects of global warming and requires further investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gentille Musengimana & Fidele K. Mukinda & Roderick Machekano & Hassan Mahomed, 2016. "Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:13:y:2016:i:9:p:859-:d:76949
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kathleen A. Alexander & Marcos Carzolio & Douglas Goodin & Eric Vance, 2013. "Climate Change is Likely to Worsen the Public Health Threat of Diarrheal Disease in Botswana," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, March.
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    2. Samuel Kwasi Opoku & Walter Leal Filho & Fudjumdjum Hubert & Oluwabunmi Adejumo, 2021. "Climate Change and Health Preparedness in Africa: Analysing Trends in Six African Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-29, April.
    3. Myo Myo Khine & Uma Langkulsen, 2023. "The Implications of Climate Change on Health among Vulnerable Populations in South Africa: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Meghnath Dhimal & Dinesh Bhandari & Khem B. Karki & Srijan Lal Shrestha & Mukti Khanal & Raja Ram Pote Shrestha & Sushma Dahal & Bihungum Bista & Kristie L. Ebi & Guéladio Cissé & Amir Sapkota & David, 2022. "Effects of Climatic Factors on Diarrheal Diseases among Children below 5 Years of Age at National and Subnational Levels in Nepal: An Ecological Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-12, May.
    5. Sokhna Thiam & Aminata N. Diène & Ibrahima Sy & Mirko S. Winkler & Christian Schindler & Jacques A. Ndione & Ousmane Faye & Penelope Vounatsou & Jürg Utzinger & Guéladio Cissé, 2017. "Association between Childhood Diarrhoeal Incidence and Climatic Factors in Urban and Rural Settings in the Health District of Mbour, Senegal," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Gorfu Geremew & Oliver Cumming & Alemayehu Haddis & Matthew C. Freeman & Argaw Ambelu, 2024. "Rainfall and Temperature Influences on Childhood Diarrhea and the Effect Modification Role of Water and Sanitation Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(7), pages 1-19, June.
    7. Amy Weimann & Tolu Oni, 2019. "A Systematised Review of the Health Impact of Urban Informal Settlements and Implications for Upgrading Interventions in South Africa, a Rapidly Urbanising Middle-Income Country," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-17, September.
    8. Felician Andrew Kitole & Justine N. Mbukwa & Felister Y. Tibamanya & Jennifer Kasanda Sesabo, 2024. "Climate change, food security, and diarrhoea prevalence nexus in Tanzania," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Matthew F. Chersich & Caradee Y. Wright & Francois Venter & Helen Rees & Fiona Scorgie & Barend Erasmus, 2018. "Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, August.

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