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A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change

Author

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  • Jingchun Fan

    (First Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 1 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
    Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
    Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
    State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, No. 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Wanxia Wei

    (University Hospital of Gansu Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 732 Jiayuguan West Road, Chenguang District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Zhenggang Bai

    (Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
    Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China)

  • Chunling Fan

    (Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Gansu Provincial Cancer Hospital, No. 2 Xiaoxihu East Street, Qilihe District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730050, China)

  • Shulan Li

    (Department of Ultrasound, People's Hospital of Gansu Province, No. 204 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China)

  • Qiyong Liu

    (State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, No. 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
    Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, No. 866 Yuhangtang Road, Xihu District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China)

  • Kehu Yang

    (First Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 1 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
    Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
    Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China)

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) is the most serious mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and is significantly affected by temperature. Although associations between DF and temperatures have been reported repeatedly, conclusions have been inconsistent. Six databases were searched up to 23 March 2014, without language and geographical restrictions. The articles that studied the correlations between temperatures and dengue were selected, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1589 identified articles, 137 were reviewed further, with 33 satisfying inclusion criteria. The closest associations were observed between mean temperature from the included studies (23.2–27.7 °C) and DF (OR 35.0% per 1 °C; 95% CI 18.3%–51.6%) positively. Additionally, minimum (18.1–24.2 °C) (29.5% per 1 °C; 20.9%–38.1%) and maximum temperature (28.0–34.5 °C) (28.9%; 10.3%–47.5%) were also associated with increased dengue transmission. The OR of DF incidence increased steeply from 22 °C to 29 °C, suggesting an inflexion of DF risk between these lower and upper limits of DF risk. This discovery is helpful for government decision-makers focused on preventing and controlling dengue in areas with temperatures within this range.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingchun Fan & Wanxia Wei & Zhenggang Bai & Chunling Fan & Shulan Li & Qiyong Liu & Kehu Yang, 2014. "A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2014:i:1:p:1-15:d:43838
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yien Ling Hii & Joacim Rocklöv & Stig Wall & Lee Ching Ng & Choon Siang Tang & Nawi Ng, 2012. "Optimal Lead Time for Dengue Forecast," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(10), pages 1-9, October.
    2. Kensuke Goto & Balachandran Kumarendran & Sachith Mettananda & Deepa Gunasekara & Yoshito Fujii & Satoshi Kaneko, 2013. "Analysis of Effects of Meteorological Factors on Dengue Incidence in Sri Lanka Using Time Series Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-8, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bin Chen & Jun Yang & Lei Luo & Zhicong Yang & Qiyong Liu, 2016. "Who Is Vulnerable to Dengue Fever? A Community Survey of the 2014 Outbreak in Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-11, July.

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