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Nowcasting GDP: An Application to Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • João B. Assunção

    (Católica Lisbon Forecasting Lab (NECEP), Católica Lisbon Research Unit in Business & Economics (CUBE), Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Palma de Cima, Building 5, 1649-023 Lisboa, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Pedro Afonso Fernandes

    (Católica Lisbon Forecasting Lab (NECEP), Católica Lisbon Research Unit in Business & Economics (CUBE), Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Palma de Cima, Building 5, 1649-023 Lisboa, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Forecasting the state of an economy is important for policy makers and business leaders. When this is conducted in real-time, it is called nowcasting. In this paper, we present a method that shows how forecasting errors decline as additional contemporaneous information unfolds and becomes available. When the economic environment changes fast, as has happened often in the last decades across most developed economies, it is important to use forecasting methods that are both flexible and robust. This can be achieved with bridge equations and non-parametric estimates of the trend growth using only publicly available information. The method presented in this paper achieves, by the end of a quarter, an accuracy that is equivalent to the methods used by official entities.

Suggested Citation

  • João B. Assunção & Pedro Afonso Fernandes, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP: An Application to Portugal," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:3:p:39-731:d:888657
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jo~ao B. Assunc{c}~ao & Pedro Afonso Fernandes, 2024. "The Surprising Robustness of Partial Least Squares," Papers 2409.05713, arXiv.org.

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