IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jforec/v4y2022i1p7-148d731299.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hybrid Surrogate Model for Timely Prediction of Flash Flood Inundation Maps Caused by Rapid River Overflow

Author

Listed:
  • Andre D. L. Zanchetta

    (Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, Canada)

  • Paulin Coulibaly

    (Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, Canada
    School of Earth, Environment and Society, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, Canada
    Institute for Water, Environment, and Health, United Nations University, 175 Longwood Road, Hamilton, ON L8P 0A1, Canada)

Abstract

Timely generation of accurate and reliable forecasts of flash flood events is of paramount importance for flood early warning systems in urban areas. Although physically based models are able to provide realistic reproductions of fast-developing inundation maps in high resolutions, the high computational demand of such hydraulic models makes them difficult to be implemented as part of real-time forecasting systems. This paper evaluates the use of a hybrid machine learning approach as a surrogate of a quasi-2D urban flood inundation model developed in PCSWMM for an urban catchment located in Toronto (Ontario, Canada). The capability to replicate the behavior of the hydraulic model was evaluated through multiple performance metrics considering error, bias, correlation, and contingency table analysis. Results indicate that the surrogate system can provide useful forecasts for decision makers by rapidly generating future flood inundation maps comparable to the simulations of physically based models. The experimental tool developed can issue reliable alerts of upcoming inundation depths on traffic locations within one to two hours of lead time, which is sufficient for the adoption of important preventive actions. These promising outcomes were achieved in a deterministic setup and use only past records of precipitation and discharge as input during runtime.

Suggested Citation

  • Andre D. L. Zanchetta & Paulin Coulibaly, 2022. "Hybrid Surrogate Model for Timely Prediction of Flash Flood Inundation Maps Caused by Rapid River Overflow," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:7-148:d:731299
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/4/1/7/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/4/1/7/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Erratum to: increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 517-518, October.
    2. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mariusz Starzec & Sabina Kordana-Obuch & Daniel Słyś, 2023. "Assessment of the Feasibility of Implementing a Flash Flood Early Warning System in a Small Catchment Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-43, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    2. Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, 2021. "Identifying agricultural disaster risk zones for future climate actions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Clyde E. Goulden & Jerry Mead & Richard Horwitz & Munhtuya Goulden & Banzragch Nandintsetseg & Sabrina McCormick & Bazartseren Boldgiv & Peter S. Petraitis, 2016. "Interviews of Mongolian herders and high resolution precipitation data reveal an increase in short heavy rains and thunderstorm activity in semi-arid Mongolia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 281-295, May.
    4. Haixin Liu & Anbing Zhang & Tao Jiang & Haitao Lv & Xinxia Liu & Hefeng Wang, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region (BTHMR) Based on the Modified TVDI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Demetrios E. Tsesmelis & Christos A. Karavitis & Panagiotis D. Oikonomou & Stavros Alexandris & Constantinos Kosmas, 2018. "Assessment of the Vulnerability to Drought and Desertification Characteristics Using the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) and the Environmentally Sensitive Areas Index (ESAI)," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Michael Berlemann & Daniela Wenzel, 2018. "Precipitation and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 7258, CESifo.
    7. Sidney Michelini & Barbora Šedová & Jacob Schewe & Katja Frieler, 2023. "Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Berlemann, Michael & Eurich, Marina, 2021. "Natural hazard risk and life satisfaction – Empirical evidence for hurricanes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    9. Zeng, Lijun & Guo, Lingyi & Jiang, Liwen, 2024. "A bi-level multi-objective optimization model for inter-provincial carbon emissions transfer tax on electricity production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    10. Zhiqi Yang & Gabriele Villarini, 2020. "On the role of increased CO2 concentrations in enhancing the temporal clustering of heavy precipitation events across Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1455-1472, October.
    11. Yuan-Chih Su & Bo-Jein Kuo, 2023. "Risk Assessment of Rice Damage Due to Heavy Rain in Taiwan," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2020. "Climate-Related Hazards and Internal Migration Empirical Evidence for Rural Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 385-409, July.
    13. Jinling Piao & Wen Chen & Jin-Soo Kim & Wen Zhou & Shangfeng Chen & Peng Hu & Xiaoqing Lan, 2023. "Future changes in rainy season characteristics over East China under continuous warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    14. Jorge Sepúlveda-Velásquez & Pablo Tapia-Griñen & Boris Pastén-Henríquez, 2023. "Financial effects of natural disasters: a bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2691-2710, September.
    15. Isnaini Isnaini & Yudhistira Nugraha & Niranjan Baisakh & Nono Carsono, 2023. "Toward Food Security in 2050: Gene Pyramiding for Climate-Smart Rice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-35, September.
    16. Shadi Arfa & Mohsen Nasseri & Hassan Tavakol-Davani, 2021. "Comparing the Effects of Different Daily and Sub-Daily Downscaling Approaches on the Response of Urban Stormwater Collection Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 505-533, January.
    17. Kai Kornhuber & Corey Lesk & Carl F. Schleussner & Jonas Jägermeyr & Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton, 2023. "Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Antonio Menéndez Suárez-Inclán & Cristina Allende-Prieto & Jorge Roces-García & Juan P. Rodríguez-Sánchez & Luis A. Sañudo-Fontaneda & Carlos Rey-Mahía & Felipe P. Álvarez-Rabanal, 2022. "Development of a Multicriteria Scheme for the Identification of Strategic Areas for SUDS Implementation: A Case Study from Gijón, Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Daniel Amoak & Isaac Luginaah & Gordon McBean, 2022. "Climate Change, Food Security, and Health: Harnessing Agroecology to Build Climate-Resilient Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-15, October.
    20. Christian Unterberger, 2018. "How Flood Damages to Public Infrastructure Affect Municipal Budget Indicators," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 5-20, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:7-148:d:731299. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.