IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v9y2016i9p693-d77035.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Enhanced Forecasting Approach for Electricity Market Prices and Wind Power Data Series in the Short-Term

Author

Listed:
  • Gerardo J. Osório

    (C-MAST, University of Beira Interior, Covilhã 6201-001, Portugal)

  • Jorge N. D. L. Gonçalves

    (INESC TEC and the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Porto, Porto 4200-465, Portugal)

  • Juan M. Lujano-Rojas

    (C-MAST, University of Beira Interior, Covilhã 6201-001, Portugal
    INESC-ID, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, Lisbon 1049-001, Portugal)

  • João P. S. Catalão

    (C-MAST, University of Beira Interior, Covilhã 6201-001, Portugal
    INESC TEC and the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Porto, Porto 4200-465, Portugal
    INESC-ID, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, Lisbon 1049-001, Portugal)

Abstract

The uncertainty and variability in electricity market price (EMP) signals and players’ behavior, as well as in renewable power generation, especially wind power, pose considerable challenges. Hence, enhancement of forecasting approaches is required for all electricity market players to deal with the non-stationary and stochastic nature of such time series, making it possible to accurately support their decisions in a competitive environment with lower forecasting error and with an acceptable computational time. As previously published methodologies have shown, hybrid approaches are good candidates to overcome most of the previous concerns about time-series forecasting. In this sense, this paper proposes an enhanced hybrid approach composed of an innovative combination of wavelet transform (WT), differential evolutionary particle swarm optimization (DEEPSO), and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast EMP signals in different electricity markets and wind power in Portugal, in the short-term, considering only historical data. Test results are provided by comparing with other reported studies, demonstrating the proficiency of the proposed hybrid approach in a real environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerardo J. Osório & Jorge N. D. L. Gonçalves & Juan M. Lujano-Rojas & João P. S. Catalão, 2016. "Enhanced Forecasting Approach for Electricity Market Prices and Wind Power Data Series in the Short-Term," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:9:p:693-:d:77035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/9/693/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/9/693/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J. & Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo & Monteiro, Cláudio & Sousa, João & Bessa, Ricardo, 2009. "Comparison of two new short-term wind-power forecasting systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1848-1854.
    2. Skittides, Christina & Früh, Wolf-Gerrit, 2014. "Wind forecasting using Principal Component Analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 365-374.
    3. Unknown, 2016. "Energy for Sustainable Development," Conference Proceedings 253270, Guru Arjan Dev Institute of Development Studies (IDSAsr).
    4. Ren, Ye & Suganthan, P.N. & Srikanth, N., 2015. "Ensemble methods for wind and solar power forecasting—A state-of-the-art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 82-91.
    5. Amjady, N. & Keynia, F., 2009. "Short-term load forecasting of power systems by combination of wavelet transform and neuro-evolutionary algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 46-57.
    6. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    7. Rodrigues, E.M.G. & Osório, G.J. & Godina, R. & Bizuayehu, A.W. & Lujano-Rojas, J.M. & Matias, J.C.O. & Catalão, J.P.S., 2015. "Modelling and sizing of NaS (sodium sulfur) battery energy storage system for extending wind power performance in Crete Island," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1606-1617.
    8. Wang, Jianjun & Li, Li, 2016. "Sustainable energy development scenario forecasting and energy saving policy analysis of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 718-724.
    9. Jursa, René & Rohrig, Kurt, 2008. "Short-term wind power forecasting using evolutionary algorithms for the automated specification of artificial intelligence models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 694-709.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agustín A. Sánchez de la Nieta & Virginia González & Javier Contreras, 2016. "Portfolio Decision of Short-Term Electricity Forecasted Prices through Stochastic Programming," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Jagienka Rześny-Cieplińska & Agnieszka Szmelter-Jarosz, 2020. "Environmental Sustainability in City Logistics Measures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-29, March.
    3. Ilias G. Marneris & Pandelis N. Biskas & Anastasios G. Bakirtzis, 2017. "Stochastic and Deterministic Unit Commitment Considering Uncertainty and Variability Reserves for High Renewable Integration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Shuai Liu & Zhong-Kai Feng & Wen-Jing Niu & Hai-Rong Zhang & Zhen-Guo Song, 2019. "Peak Operation Problem Solving for Hydropower Reservoirs by Elite-Guide Sine Cosine Algorithm with Gaussian Local Search and Random Mutation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Catalão, J.P.S. & Pousinho, H.M.I. & Mendes, V.M.F., 2011. "Short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal by neural networks and wavelet transform," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1245-1251.
    3. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    4. Osório, G.J. & Matias, J.C.O. & Catalão, J.P.S., 2015. "Short-term wind power forecasting using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system combined with evolutionary particle swarm optimization, wavelet transform and mutual information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 301-307.
    5. Mollik, Sazib & Rashid, M.M. & Hasanuzzaman, M. & Karim, M.E. & Hosenuzzaman, M., 2016. "Prospects, progress, policies, and effects of rural electrification in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 553-567.
    6. Erik Heilmann & Janosch Henze & Heike Wetzel, 2021. "Machine learning in energy forecasts with an application to high frequency electricity consumption data," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202135, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Wasilewski, J. & Baczynski, D., 2017. "Short-term electric energy production forecasting at wind power plants in pareto-optimality context," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 177-187.
    9. Carmen de la Cruz-Lovera & Alberto-Jesus Perea-Moreno & José Luis de la Cruz-Fernández & Francisco G. Montoya & Alfredo Alcayde & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro, 2019. "Analysis of Research Topics and Scientific Collaborations in Energy Saving Using Bibliometric Techniques and Community Detection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.
    10. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
    11. Olexandr Yemelyanov & Anastasiya Symak & Tetyana Petrushka & Roman Lesyk & Lilia Lesyk, 2018. "Evaluation of the Adaptability of the Ukrainian Economy to Changes in Prices for Energy Carriers and to Energy Market Risks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-34, December.
    12. Gabrielli, Paolo & Wüthrich, Moritz & Blume, Steffen & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2022. "Data-driven modeling for long-term electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    13. Foley, Aoife M. & Leahy, Paul G. & Marvuglia, Antonino & McKeogh, Eamon J., 2012. "Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-8.
    14. Wei Li & Tao Zhao & Yanan Wang & Fang Guo, 2017. "Investigating the learning effects of technological advancement on CO2 emissions: a regional analysis in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 1211-1227, September.
    15. Emanuel Canelas & Tânia Pinto-Varela & Bartosz Sawik, 2020. "Electricity Portfolio Optimization for Large Consumers: Iberian Electricity Market Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, May.
    16. Kück, Mirko & Freitag, Michael, 2021. "Forecasting of customer demands for production planning by local k-nearest neighbor models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    17. Liu, Junxia, 2019. "China's renewable energy law and policy: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 212-219.
    18. Lazić, Lazar & Pejanović, Goran & Živković, Momčilo & Ilić, Luka, 2014. "Improved wind forecasts for wind power generation using the Eta model and MOS (Model Output Statistics) method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 567-574.
    19. Nowotarski, Jakub & Liu, Bidong & Weron, Rafał & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 40-49.
    20. Zhongrong Zhang & Yiliao Song & Feng Liu & Jinpeng Liu, 2016. "Daily Average Wind Power Interval Forecasts Based on an Optimal Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System and Singular Spectrum Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-30, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:9:p:693-:d:77035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.