IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v9y2015i1p8-d61195.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Error Assessment of Solar Irradiance Forecasts and AC Power from Energy Conversion Model in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Gianfranco Chicco

    (Energy Department, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino 10129, Italy)

  • Valeria Cocina

    (Energy Department, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino 10129, Italy)

  • Paolo Di Leo

    (Energy Department, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino 10129, Italy)

  • Filippo Spertino

    (Energy Department, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino 10129, Italy)

  • Alessandro Massi Pavan

    (Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Via Valerio 10, Trieste 34127, Italy)

Abstract

Availability of effective estimation of the power profiles of photovoltaic systems is essential for studying how to increase the share of intermittent renewable sources in the electricity mix of many countries. For this purpose, weather forecasts, together with historical data of the meteorological quantities, provide fundamental information. The weak point of the forecasts depends on variable sky conditions, when the clouds successively cover and uncover the solar disc. This causes remarkable positive and negative variations in the irradiance pattern measured at the photovoltaic (PV) site location. This paper starts from 1 to 3 days-ahead solar irradiance forecasts available during one year, with a few points for each day. These forecasts are interpolated to obtain more irradiance estimations per day. The estimated irradiance data are used to classify the sky conditions into clear, variable or cloudy. The results are compared with the outcomes of the same classification carried out with the irradiance measured in meteorological stations at two real PV sites. The occurrence of irradiance spikes in “broken cloud” conditions is identified and discussed. From the measured irradiance, the Alternating Current (AC) power injected into the grid at two PV sites is estimated by using a PV energy conversion model. The AC power errors resulting from the PV model with respect to on-site AC power measurements are shown and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianfranco Chicco & Valeria Cocina & Paolo Di Leo & Filippo Spertino & Alessandro Massi Pavan, 2015. "Error Assessment of Solar Irradiance Forecasts and AC Power from Energy Conversion Model in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2015:i:1:p:8-:d:61195
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/1/8/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/1/8/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kang, Byung O & Tam, Kwa-Sur, 2015. "New and improved methods to estimate day-ahead quantity and quality of solar irradiance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 240-249.
    2. Munawar Iqbal & David T. Llewellyn, 2002. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Munawar Iqbal & David T. Llewellyn (ed.), Islamic Banking and Finance, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Dambreville, Romain & Blanc, Philippe & Chanussot, Jocelyn & Boldo, Didier, 2014. "Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 291-300.
    4. Thomas Huld & Ana M. Gracia Amillo, 2015. "Estimating PV Module Performance over Large Geographical Regions: The Role of Irradiance, Air Temperature, Wind Speed and Solar Spectrum," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-23, June.
    5. Czekalski, D. & Chochowski, A. & Obstawski, P., 2012. "Parameterization of daily solar irradiance variability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2461-2467.
    6. Spertino, Filippo & Corona, Fabio, 2013. "Monitoring and checking of performance in photovoltaic plants: A tool for design, installation and maintenance of grid-connected systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 722-732.
    7. Diagne, Maimouna & David, Mathieu & Lauret, Philippe & Boland, John & Schmutz, Nicolas, 2013. "Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 65-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Senturk, Ali, 2020. "Investigation of datasheet provided temperature coefficients of photovoltaic modules under various sky profiles at the field by applying a new validation procedure," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 644-652.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marchesoni-Acland, Franco & Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo, 2020. "Intra-day solar irradiation forecast using RLS filters and satellite images," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1140-1154.
    2. Alonso-Suárez, R. & David, M. & Branco, V. & Lauret, P., 2020. "Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 554-573.
    3. Chao-Rong Chen & Unit Three Kartini, 2017. "k-Nearest Neighbor Neural Network Models for Very Short-Term Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Aguiar, L. Mazorra & Pereira, B. & Lauret, P. & Díaz, F. & David, M., 2016. "Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 599-610.
    5. Stéphanie Monjoly & Maina André & Rudy Calif & Ted Soubdhan, 2019. "Forecast Horizon and Solar Variability Influences on the Performances of Multiscale Hybrid Forecast Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Barbieri, Florian & Rajakaruna, Sumedha & Ghosh, Arindam, 2017. "Very short-term photovoltaic power forecasting with cloud modeling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 242-263.
    7. Lan, Hai & Yin, He & Hong, Ying-Yi & Wen, Shuli & Yu, David C. & Cheng, Peng, 2018. "Day-ahead spatio-temporal forecasting of solar irradiation along a navigation route," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 15-27.
    8. Elena Collino & Dario Ronzio, 2021. "Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-30, February.
    9. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
    10. Trigo-González, Mauricio & Batlles, F.J. & Alonso-Montesinos, Joaquín & Ferrada, Pablo & del Sagrado, J. & Martínez-Durbán, M. & Cortés, Marcelo & Portillo, Carlos & Marzo, Aitor, 2019. "Hourly PV production estimation by means of an exportable multiple linear regression model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 303-312.
    11. Federica Cucchiella & Idiano D’Adamo & Paolo Rosa, 2015. "Industrial Photovoltaic Systems: An Economic Analysis in Non-Subsidized Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    12. Hamed Khodayar Sahebi & Siamak Hoseinzadeh & Hossein Ghadamian & Mohammad Hadi Ghasemi & Farbod Esmaeilion & Davide Astiaso Garcia, 2021. "Techno-Economic Analysis and New Design of a Photovoltaic Power Plant by a Direct Radiation Amplification System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    13. Boland, John, 2015. "Spatial-temporal forecasting of solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 607-616.
    14. Javier Borquez & Hector Chavez & Karina A. Barbosa & Marcela Jamett & Rodrigo Acuna, 2020. "A Simple Distribution Energy Tariff under the Penetration of DG," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, April.
    15. Wang, Zhenyu & Zhang, Yunpeng & Li, Guorong & Zhang, Jinlong & Zhou, Hai & Wu, Ji, 2024. "A novel solar irradiance forecasting method based on multi-physical process of atmosphere optics and LSTM-BP model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    16. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. John Boland & Sleiman Farah & Lei Bai, 2022. "Forecasting of Wind and Solar Farm Output in the Australian National Electricity Market: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
    18. Tang, Daogui & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2023. "Vulnerability analysis of demand-response with renewable energy integration in smart grids to cyber attacks and online detection methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    19. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.
    20. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2015:i:1:p:8-:d:61195. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.