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China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO 2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

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  • Wei Li

    (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 619 Yonghua Street, Baoding 071003, Hebei, China
    Philosophy and Social Science Research Base of Hebei Province, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, Hebei, China)

  • Hao Li

    (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 619 Yonghua Street, Baoding 071003, Hebei, China)

  • Shuang Sun

    (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 619 Yonghua Street, Baoding 071003, Hebei, China)

Abstract

China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO 2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Li & Hao Li & Shuang Sun, 2015. "China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO 2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-27, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:5:p:3529-3555:d:48804
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jie Wu & Ying Fan & Yan Xia, 2017. "How Can China Achieve Its Nationally Determined Contribution Targets Combining Emissions Trading Scheme and Renewable Energy Policies?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Mu, Yaqian & Evans, Samuel & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2018. "How will sectoral coverage affect the efficiency of an emissions trading system? A CGE-based case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 403-414.
    3. Babatunde, Kazeem Alasinrin & Begum, Rawshan Ara & Said, Fathin Faizah, 2017. "Application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) to climate change mitigation policy: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 61-71.
    4. Wei Li & Zhijie Jia, 2017. "Carbon tax, emission trading, or the mixed policy: which is the most effective strategy for climate change mitigation in China?," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 973-992, August.

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