IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i4p784-d1586149.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Statistical Upscaling Prediction Method of Photovoltaic Cluster Power Considering the Influence of Sand and Dust Weather

Author

Listed:
  • Hu Yang

    (College of Science, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Chang Liu

    (College of Science, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Zhao Wang

    (National Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy Grid-Integration, China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China)

  • Hongqing Wang

    (College of Science, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) clusters in deserts such as the Gobi and other regions are frequently affected by sand and dust, which causes great deviation in power prediction and seriously threatens the safe operation of new power systems. For this reason, this paper proposes a short-term cluster PV power prediction method based on statistical upscaling, considering the effect of sand and dust. Firstly, the sand and dust events are identified, and then time series generative adversarial networks (TimeGANs) are used to solve the problem of small sample scarcity in sand and dust and construct a power correction model for sand and dust scenes. Secondly, for different weather scenes, a combination of conventional prediction and correction prediction is used to solve the problem of large differences in the predictability of a single model. Finally, a statistical upscaling method is utilized to calculate the cluster prediction power to solve the prediction difficulties of large-scale newly installed PV field stations. Through a case study and comparison with other models and methods, the cluster prediction method established in this paper effectively improves the prediction accuracy of the power of large-scale PV clusters affected by sand and dust, with the RMSE reduced by 8.28%.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu Yang & Chang Liu & Zhao Wang & Hongqing Wang, 2025. "Statistical Upscaling Prediction Method of Photovoltaic Cluster Power Considering the Influence of Sand and Dust Weather," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-20, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:4:p:784-:d:1586149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/4/784/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/4/784/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weiliang Liu & Changliang Liu & Yongjun Lin & Liangyu Ma & Feng Xiong & Jintuo Li, 2018. "Ultra-Short-Term Forecast of Photovoltaic Output Power under Fog and Haze Weather," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yusen Wang & Wenlong Liao & Yuqing Chang, 2018. "Gated Recurrent Unit Network-Based Short-Term Photovoltaic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Yao, Wanxiang & Zheng, Zhimiao & Zhao, Jun & Wang, Xiao & Wang, Yan & Li, Xianli & Fu, Jidong, 2020. "The factor analysis of fog and haze under the coupling of multiple factors -- taking four Chinese cities as an example," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Evgeny Solomin & Shanmuga Priya Selvanathan & Sudhakar Kumarasamy & Anton Kovalyov & Ramyashree Maddappa Srinivasa, 2021. "The Comparison of Solar-Powered Hydrogen Closed-Cycle System Capacities for Selected Locations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Yosui Miyazaki & Yusuke Kameda & Junji Kondoh, 2019. "A Power-Forecasting Method for Geographically Distributed PV Power Systems using Their Previous Datasets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Wei Li & Hui Ren & Ping Chen & Yanyang Wang & Hailong Qi, 2020. "Key Operational Issues on the Integration of Large-Scale Solar Power Generation—A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-25, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:4:p:784-:d:1586149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.