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Modelling and Forecasting Crude Oil Prices Using Trend Analysis in a Binary-Temporal Representation

Author

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  • Michał Dominik Stasiak

    (Department of Investment and Real Estate, Poznan University of Economics and Business, al. Niepodleglosci 10, 61-875 Poznan, Poland)

  • Żaneta Staszak

    (The Faculty of Civil and Transport Engineering, Poznan University of Technology, 5 M. Skłodowska-Curie Square, 60-965 Poznan, Poland)

Abstract

The oil market is one of the most important markets for the global economy. Often, oil prices influence the financial results of whole countries and sectors. Therefore, the modeling and prediction of crude oil prices are of high importance. Most up-to-date publications have used daily closing rates in crude oil price modeling, not considering the variability in prices during the day. The application of this kind of price representation leads to a loss of information about the range of price changes during the day, which influences the accuracy of the models and makes them useless in short-term course predictions. In this paper, we introduce the concept of a new state model in a binary-temporal representation, which uses trend analysis, which is one of the main methods used in the prediction of the direction of future changes in the course trajectory. The model described in this paper stands as the first tool that allows for predicting course changes in a given range. The presented work also summarizes the research results of modeling crude oil prices from the last six years, which prove the effectiveness of the mentioned modeling method.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Dominik Stasiak & Żaneta Staszak, 2024. "Modelling and Forecasting Crude Oil Prices Using Trend Analysis in a Binary-Temporal Representation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:14:p:3361-:d:1431456
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    References listed on IDEAS

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