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Uncertainty aversion in a heterogeneous agent model of foreign exchange rate formation

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  • Kozhan, Roman
  • Salmon, Mark

Abstract

This paper provides what we believe to be the first empirical test of whether investors in the foreign exchange market are uncertainty averse. We do this using a heterogeneous agents model in which fundamentalist and chartist beliefs of the exchange rate co-exist and are allowed to be either uncertainty neutral or uncertainty averse. Uncertainty aversion is modelled using the maxmin expected utility approach. We find significant evidence of uncertainty aversion in the FX market where in particular fundamentalists are found to be largely uncertainty neutral while chartists are mainly uncertainty averse. Inclusion of uncertainty averse agents significantly improves the empirical performance of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Kozhan, Roman & Salmon, Mark, 2009. "Uncertainty aversion in a heterogeneous agent model of foreign exchange rate formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1106-1122, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:5:p:1106-1122
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    Cited by:

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    2. Taylor, Mark & Xu, Qi & Kozhan, Roman, 2020. "Prospect Theory and Currency Returns: Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Li, Xiao-Ping & Zhou, Chun-Yang & Tong, Bin, 2019. "Carry trades, agent heterogeneity and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 343-358.
    4. Joëts, Marc, 2015. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 204-215.
    5. Amparo M. Mármol & Luisa Monroy & M. Ángeles Caraballo & Asunción Zapata, 2017. "Equilibria with vector-valued utilities and preference information. The analysis of a mixed duopoly," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 365-383, October.
    6. Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
    7. Marco Rojas & Damián Vergara, 2021. "Ambiguity and long-run cooperation in strategic games," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 1077-1098.
    8. A. Zapata & A. M. Mármol & L. Monroy & M. A. Caraballo, 2019. "A Maxmin Approach for the Equilibria of Vector-Valued Games," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 415-432, April.
    9. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    10. He, Kaijian & Wang, Lijun & Zou, Yingchao & Lai, Kin Keung, 2014. "Value at risk estimation with entropy-based wavelet analysis in exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 62-71.
    11. Li, XiaoPing & Tong, Bin & Zhou, ChunYang, 2020. "Uncertainty aversion, carry trades and agent heterogeneity in the FX market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).

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