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Scenario Analysis of the Development of the Polish Power System towards Achieving Climate Neutrality in 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Marcin Pluta

    (Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

  • Artur Wyrwa

    (Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

  • Janusz Zyśk

    (Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

  • Wojciech Suwała

    (Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

  • Maciej Raczyński

    (Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

Abstract

The Polish power system has been reducing its impact on the environment for a long time, mainly through modernization and investments in new generation capacities, including renewable energy technologies. However, its starting point is still more difficult compared to other less coal-dependent power systems in the European Union. The study was conducted in the direction of optimizing the Polish energy mix of electricity generation from the perspective of 2050. Two energy scenarios for the possible transformation of the Polish power system towards achieving at least a 95% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050 with an increasing share of renewables were analyzed. The study was carried out with the use of the TIMES-PL model, which minimizes the total system cost over the analyzed time horizon. The model was calibrated according to data from 2018. The two scenarios show relatively similar pathways for CO 2 emission reductions by 2050. In the case of no investment in nuclear power plants, power plants equipped with CO 2 capture and storage systems are an alternative solution for achieving climate neutrality and increasing national energy security.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcin Pluta & Artur Wyrwa & Janusz Zyśk & Wojciech Suwała & Maciej Raczyński, 2023. "Scenario Analysis of the Development of the Polish Power System towards Achieving Climate Neutrality in 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:16:p:5918-:d:1214388
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jonek-Kowalska, Izabela, 2024. "Demonstrating the need for a just transition: Socioeconomic diagnosis of polish cities living on hard coal mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Mariusz Tomczyk & Henryk Wojtaszek & Małgorzata Chackiewicz & Małgorzata Orłowska, 2023. "Electromobility and Renewable Energy Sources: Comparison of Attitudes and Infrastructure in Poland and Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-34, December.
    3. Stamatios K. Chrysikopoulos & Panos T. Chountalas & Dimitrios A. Georgakellos & Athanasios G. Lagodimos, 2024. "Decarbonization in the Oil and Gas Sector: The Role of Power Purchase Agreements and Renewable Energy Certificates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Andrzej Gutowski & Mariusz Maciejczak, 2024. "Development of the Polish Power Sector towards Energy Neutrality—The Scenario Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-17, June.

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