IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i10p4065-d1145927.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Consumption Forecasting in a University Office by Artificial Intelligence Techniques: An Analysis of the Exogenous Data Effect on the Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Roozbeh Sadeghian Broujeny

    (LINEACT-Lab. EA7527, CESI, 62000 Arras, France)

  • Safa Ben Ayed

    (LINEACT-Lab. EA7527, CESI, 62000 Arras, France)

  • Mouadh Matalah

    (LINEACT-Lab. EA7527, CESI, 62000 Arras, France)

Abstract

The forecasting of building energy consumption remains a challenging task because of the intricate management of the relevant parameters that can influence the performance of models. Due to the powerful capability of artificial intelligence (AI) in forecasting problems, it is deemed to be highly effective in this domain. However, achieving accurate predictions requires the extraction of meaningful historical knowledge from various features. Given that the exogenous data may affect the energy consumption forecasting model’s accuracy, we propose an approach to study the importance of data and selecting optimum time lags to obtain a high-performance machine learning-based model, while reducing its complexity. Regarding energy consumption forecasting, multilayer perceptron-based nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), decision tree, and XGboost models are utilized. The best model performance is achieved by LSTM and GRU with a root mean square error of 0.23. An analysis by the Diebold–Mariano method is also presented, to compare the prediction accuracy of the models. In order to measure the association of feature data on modeling, the “model reliance” method is implemented. The proposed approach shows promising results to obtain a well-performing model. The obtained results are qualitatively reported and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Roozbeh Sadeghian Broujeny & Safa Ben Ayed & Mouadh Matalah, 2023. "Energy Consumption Forecasting in a University Office by Artificial Intelligence Techniques: An Analysis of the Exogenous Data Effect on the Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-21, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:10:p:4065-:d:1145927
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/10/4065/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/10/4065/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Jian Qi & Du, Yu & Wang, Jing, 2020. "LSTM based long-term energy consumption prediction with periodicity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    2. Xue, Puning & Jiang, Yi & Zhou, Zhigang & Chen, Xin & Fang, Xiumu & Liu, Jing, 2019. "Multi-step ahead forecasting of heat load in district heating systems using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    3. Koschwitz, D. & Frisch, J. & van Treeck, C., 2018. "Data-driven heating and cooling load predictions for non-residential buildings based on support vector machine regression and NARX Recurrent Neural Network: A comparative study on district scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 134-142.
    4. Hadjout, D. & Torres, J.F. & Troncoso, A. & Sebaa, A. & Martínez-Álvarez, F., 2022. "Electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble deep learning with application to the Algerian market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. Xiaoyu Lin & Hang Yu & Meng Wang & Chaoen Li & Zi Wang & Yin Tang, 2021. "Electricity Consumption Forecast of High-Rise Office Buildings Based on the Long Short-Term Memory Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Rahman, Aowabin & Srikumar, Vivek & Smith, Amanda D., 2018. "Predicting electricity consumption for commercial and residential buildings using deep recurrent neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 372-385.
    8. Francis X. Diebold, 2015. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-1, January.
    9. Gaya Herrington, 2021. "Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(3), pages 614-626, June.
    10. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali & Depeng Wang, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Components Estimation Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hafize Nurgul Durmus Senyapar & Bilal Duzgun & Fatih Emre Boran, 2024. "Energy Labels and Consumer Attitudes: A Study among University Staff," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-30, February.
    2. Amir Shahcheraghian & Adrian Ilinca, 2024. "Advanced Machine Learning Techniques for Energy Consumption Analysis and Optimization at UBC Campus: Correlations with Meteorological Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Dalia Mohammed Talat Ebrahim Ali & Violeta Motuzienė & Rasa Džiugaitė-Tumėnienė, 2024. "AI-Driven Innovations in Building Energy Management Systems: A Review of Potential Applications and Energy Savings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-35, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Lu, Yakai & Tian, Zhe & Zhou, Ruoyu & Liu, Wenjing, 2021. "A general transfer learning-based framework for thermal load prediction in regional energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Maciej Slowik & Wieslaw Urban, 2022. "Machine Learning Short-Term Energy Consumption Forecasting for Microgrids in a Manufacturing Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Hasnain Iftikhar & Nadeela Bibi & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Multiple Novel Decomposition Techniques for Time Series Forecasting: Application to Monthly Forecasting of Electricity Consumption in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-17, March.
    5. João C. Claudio & Katja Heinisch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2020. "Nowcasting East German GDP growth: a MIDAS approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 29-54, January.
    6. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    7. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    8. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2018. "On The Sources Of Uncertainty In Exchange Rate Predictability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 329-357, February.
    9. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2016. "Research Needs and Challenges in the FEW System: Coupling Economic Models with Agronomic, Hydrologic, and Bioenergy Models for Sustainable Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp563, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    10. Karen Poghosyan & Ruben Poghosyan, 2021. "On the Applicability of Dynamic Factor Models for Forecasting Real GDP Growth in Armenia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 71(1), pages 52-79, June.
    11. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2015. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 338-351, July.
    12. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    13. Maciej Kostrzewski & Jadwiga Kostrzewska, 2021. "The Impact of Forecasting Jumps on Forecasting Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    15. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
    16. Franses, Philip Hans, 2016. "A note on the Mean Absolute Scaled Error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 20-22.
    17. Hinterlang, Natascha, 2019. "Predicting Monetary Policy Using Artificial Neural Networks," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203503, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Tim Bollerslev & Benjamin Hood & John Huss & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2018. "Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2729-2773.
    19. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    20. Bloznelis, Daumantas, 2017. "Hedging under square loss," MPRA Paper 83442, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:10:p:4065-:d:1145927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.