Understanding Energy Behavioral Changes Due to COVID-19 in the Residents of Dubai Using Electricity Consumption Data and Their Impacts

The building sector consumes as much as 80% of generated electricity in the UAE; during the COVID-19 pandemic, the energy consumption of two sub-sectors, i.e., commercial (50%) and residential (30%), was significantly impacted. The residential sector was impacted the most due to an increase in the average occupancy during the lockdown period. This increment continued even after the lockdown due to the fear of infection. The COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdown measures can be considered experimental setups, allowing for a better understanding of how users shift their consumption under new conditions. The emergency health measures and new social dynamics shaped the residential sector’s energy behavior and its increase in electricity consumption. This article presents and analyzes the identified issues concerning residential electricity consumers and how their behaviors change based on the electricity consumption data during the COVID-19 period. The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority conducted a voluntary survey to define the profiles of its residential customers. A sample of 439 consumers participated in this survey and four years of smart meter records. The analysis focused on understanding behavioral changes in consumers during the COVID-19 period. At this time, the dwellings were occupied for longer than usual, increasing their domestic energy consumption and altering the daily peak hours for the comparable period before, during, and after the lockdown. This work addressed COVID-19 and the lockdown as an atypical case. The authors used a machine learning model and the consumption data for 2018 to predict the consumption for each year afterward, observing the COVID-19 years (2020 and 2021), and compared them with the so-called typical 2019 predictions. Four years of fifteen-minute resolution data and the detailed profiles of the customers led to a better understanding of the impacts of COVID-19 on residential energy use, irrespective of changes caused by seasonal variations. The findings include the reasons for the changes in consumption and the effects of the pandemic. There was a 12% increase in the annual consumption for the sample residents considered in 2020 (the COVID-19-affected year) as compared to 2019, and the total consumption remained similar with only a 0.2% decrease in 2021. The article also reports that machine learning models created in only one year, 2018, performed better by 10% in prediction compared with the deep learning models due to the limited training data available. The article implies the need for exploring approaches/features that could model the previously unseen COVID-19-like scenarios to improve the performance in case of such an event in the future.