IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i24p9356-d999460.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Security Assessment Based on a New Dynamic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Paweł Ziemba

    (Institute of Management, University of Szczecin, Aleja Papieża Jana Pawła II 22A, 70-453 Szczecin, Poland)

Abstract

Access to energy resources and broadly understood energy security are some of the critical factors influencing the economic development of countries. This article deals with the problem of assessing the energy security of countries, considering this problem in various periods of time, examining the past, present and forecasted future conditions at the same time. For this purpose, the Dynamic Multi-Criteria Decision Making (DMCDM) methodology was developed and applied, based on the classic and fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods and the International Energy Security Risk Index (IESRI). In particular, the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW)/Fuzzy SAW and New Easy Approach to Fuzzy PROMETHEE II (NEAT F-PROMETHEE) methods were used. These methods are significantly different from each other in the calculation procedures used. The study showed that methodological differences between these methods cause large differences in the results of the assessment of energy security of countries. However, both methodological approaches indicated the high energy security of New Zealand, Norway, Denmark and the United States, and the very low security of Ukraine, Thailand and South Korea. The results of the assessment of energy security of countries over the 2015–2025 period are the main practical contribution of this article. The scientific contribution of the article consists in developing a framework for dynamic energy security assessment that allows for the aggregation of many periods of time and that defines the aggregation strategies, capturing data from the past, present and future state forecasts while taking into account changes in the weights of criteria and changes in the sets of alternatives and criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Paweł Ziemba, 2022. "Energy Security Assessment Based on a New Dynamic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:24:p:9356-:d:999460
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/24/9356/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/24/9356/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertrand Mareschal & Jean Pierre Brans, 1994. "PROMCALC & GAIA: a new decision support system for multicriteria decision aid," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9349, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Cergibozan, Raif, 2022. "Renewable energy sources as a solution for energy security risk: Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 617-626.
    3. Carlos Henggeler Antunes & Carla Oliveira Henriques, 2016. "Multi-Objective Optimization and Multi-Criteria Analysis Models and Methods for Problems in the Energy Sector," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Salvatore Greco & Matthias Ehrgott & José Rui Figueira (ed.), Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 1067-1165, Springer.
    4. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Po-Lung Yu & Yen-Chu Chen, 2010. "Dynamic MCDM, Habitual Domains and Competence Set Analysis for Effective Decision Making in Changeable Spaces," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Matthias Ehrgott & José Rui Figueira & Salvatore Greco (ed.), Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 1-35, Springer.
    6. Gasser, Patrick, 2020. "A review on energy security indices to compare country performances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Tutak, Magdalena & Brodny, Jarosław, 2022. "Analysis of the level of energy security in the three seas initiative countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    8. Paweł Ziemba, 2021. "Selection of Electric Vehicles for the Needs of Sustainable Transport under Conditions of Uncertainty—A Comparative Study on Fuzzy MCDA Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-25, November.
    9. Keeney,Ralph L. & Raiffa,Howard, 1993. "Decisions with Multiple Objectives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438834, September.
    10. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    11. Iztok Podbregar & Goran Šimić & Mirjana Radovanović & Sanja Filipović & Polona Šprajc, 2020. "International Energy Security Risk Index—Analysis of the Methodological Settings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, June.
    12. Ziemba, Paweł, 2022. "Uncertain Multi-Criteria analysis of offshore wind farms projects investments – Case study of the Polish Economic Zone of the Baltic Sea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    13. Paweł Ziemba, 2021. "Multi-Criteria Fuzzy Evaluation of the Planned Offshore Wind Farm Investments in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    14. Abdelrahman Azzuni & Christian Breyer, 2020. "Global Energy Security Index and Its Application on National Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-49, May.
    15. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    16. Nerlinger, Martin & Utz, Sebastian, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy firms: A capital market perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    17. M. Saisana & A. Saltelli & S. Tarantola, 2005. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques as tools for the quality assessment of composite indicators," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(2), pages 307-323, March.
    18. Bertrand Mareschal & Jean Pierre Brans, 1994. "The PROMETHEE-GAIA decision support system for multicriteria investigations," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9367, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    19. Joanna Toborek-Mazur & Karol Partacz & Marcin Surówka, 2022. "Energy Security as a Premise for Mergers and Acquisitions on the Example of the Multi-Energy Concern PKN Orlen in the Face of the Challenges of the 2020s," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-28, July.
    20. Eva Hanuláková & Ferdinand Daňo & Marek Kukura, 2021. "Transition of business companies to circular economy in Slovakia," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 9(1), pages 204-220, September.
    21. Paweł Ziemba, 2019. "Inter-Criteria Dependencies-Based Decision Support in the Sustainable wind Energy Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-29, February.
    22. Paweł Ziemba & Aneta Becker & Jarosław Becker, 2021. "Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    23. Guitouni, Adel & Martel, Jean-Marc, 1998. "Tentative guidelines to help choosing an appropriate MCDA method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 501-521, September.
    24. Iztok Podbregar & Goran Šimić & Mirjana Radovanović & Sanja Filipović & Damjan Maletič & Polona Šprajc, 2020. "The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Duan, 2024. "The establishment of evaluation systems and an index for energy superpower," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    2. Siksnelyte-Butkiene, Indre & Streimikiene, Dalia & Lekavicius, Vidas & Balezentis, Tomas, 2024. "Comprehensive analysis of energy security indicators and measurement of their integrity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paweł Ziemba & Aneta Becker & Jarosław Becker, 2021. "Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Paweł Ziemba, 2021. "Selection of Electric Vehicles for the Needs of Sustainable Transport under Conditions of Uncertainty—A Comparative Study on Fuzzy MCDA Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-25, November.
    3. Paweł Ziemba, 2022. "Application Framework of Multi-Criteria Methods in Sustainability Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Ziemba, Paweł, 2022. "Uncertain Multi-Criteria analysis of offshore wind farms projects investments – Case study of the Polish Economic Zone of the Baltic Sea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    5. Siksnelyte-Butkiene, Indre & Streimikiene, Dalia & Lekavicius, Vidas & Balezentis, Tomas, 2024. "Comprehensive analysis of energy security indicators and measurement of their integrity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Paweł Ziemba, 2019. "Inter-Criteria Dependencies-Based Decision Support in the Sustainable wind Energy Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-29, February.
    7. Kang, Duan, 2024. "The establishment of evaluation systems and an index for energy superpower," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    8. Behzadian, Majid & Kazemzadeh, R.B. & Albadvi, A. & Aghdasi, M., 2010. "PROMETHEE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 198-215, January.
    9. Tutak, Magdalena & Brodny, Jarosław, 2022. "Analysis of the level of energy security in the three seas initiative countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    10. Jacek Strojny & Anna Krakowiak-Bal & Jarosław Knaga & Piotr Kacorzyk, 2023. "Energy Security: A Conceptual Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-35, June.
    11. Yuxin Zhang & Yifei Yang & Xiaosi Li & Zijing Yuan & Yuki Todo & Haichuan Yang, 2023. "A Dendritic Neuron Model Optimized by Meta-Heuristics with a Power-Law-Distributed Population Interaction Network for Financial Time-Series Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Simona Mikšíková & David Ulčák & František Kuda, 2022. "Analysis of Malfunctions in Selected Parking Systems in the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-10, February.
    13. Liu, Che & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Chenghui & Li, Fan, 2020. "A hybrid prediction model for residential electricity consumption using holt-winters and extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    14. Hossein Yousefi & Mohammad Hasan Ghodusinejad & Armin Ghodrati, 2022. "Multi-Criteria Future Energy System Planning and Analysis for Hot Arid Areas of Iran," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.
    15. Dyna Heng & Anna Ivanova & Rodrigo Mariscal & Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan & Joyce Wong, 2016. "Advancing Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2016/081, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Ullah, Sana & Gozgor, Giray & Lu, Zhou, 2024. "How do conflicts affect energy security risk? Evidence from major energy-consuming economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 175-187.
    17. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 71-84.
    18. Simone Boccaletti & Paolo Maranzano & Caterina Morelli & Elisa Ossola, 2024. "ESG Performance and Stock Market Responses to Geopolitical Turmoil: evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War," Working Papers 544, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    19. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A quantitative measure of fitness for duty and work processes for human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 595-601.
    20. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:24:p:9356-:d:999460. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.