IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i16p5210-d620068.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Stanisław Tokarski

    (Central Mining Institute, Plac Gwarków 1, 40-166 Katowice, Poland)

  • Małgorzata Magdziarczyk

    (Department of Economics, Finance, Regional and International Research, Opole University of Technology, ul. Luboszycka 7, 45-036 Opole, Poland)

  • Adam Smoliński

    (Central Mining Institute, Plac Gwarków 1, 40-166 Katowice, Poland)

Abstract

The introduction of the Green Deal in 2019 by the European Commission poses a significant challenge for EU member states whose power generation is based primarily on fossil fuels. In Poland, nearly 80% of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels. This paper presents an analysis of the risks related to the delays in the accomplishment of investment programs in the Polish power industry. Three scenarios were prepared for balancing the deficiency of about 3 GW of power and 20 TWh of electricity in the national power grid in the years 2031–2040, which may emerge as a result of the delayed accomplishment of investment programs, particularly in nuclear energy. The first scenario presents a variant entailing the rapid phasing out of coal and the replacement of the decommissioned power units with new gas-powered units, where the missing power volume would be partially balanced by import, and partially through gas-based production in the new power units. The second scenario assumes that the missing power would be balanced by retaining the existing, older coal-powered units, whereas the required electricity would be compensated by import. The third scenario involves the production of the missing volume of electricity using coal with CO 2 capture in existing or new coal-powered units.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanisław Tokarski & Małgorzata Magdziarczyk & Adam Smoliński, 2021. "Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-10, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:16:p:5210-:d:620068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/5210/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/5210/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Howaniec, Natalia & Smoliński, Adam & Cempa-Balewicz, Magdalena, 2015. "Experimental study on application of high temperature reactor excess heat in the process of coal and biomass co-gasification to hydrogen-rich gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 455-461.
    2. Brauers, Hanna & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2020. "The political economy of coal in Poland: Drivers and barriers for a shift away from fossil fuels," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 144.
    3. Potrč, Sanja & Čuček, Lidija & Martin, Mariano & Kravanja, Zdravko, 2021. "Sustainable renewable energy supply networks optimization – The gradual transition to a renewable energy system within the European Union by 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Brauers, Hanna & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2020. "The political economy of coal in Poland: Drivers and barriers for a shift away from fossil fuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Lepszy, Sebastian, 2020. "Analysis of the storage capacity and charging and discharging power in energy storage systems based on historical data on the day-ahead energy market in Poland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Kirkerud, J.G. & Nagel, N.O. & Bolkesjø, T.F., 2021. "The role of demand response in the future renewable northern European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    7. Smoliński, Adam & Howaniec, Natalia & Gąsior, Rafał & Polański, Jarosław & Magdziarczyk, Małgorzata, 2021. "Hydrogen rich gas production through co-gasification of low rank coal, flotation concentrates and municipal refuse derived fuel," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    8. Lohrmann, Alena & Child, Michael & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Assessment of the water footprint for the European power sector during the transition towards a 100% renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    9. Simla, Tomasz & Stanek, Wojciech, 2020. "Influence of the wind energy sector on thermal power plants in the Polish energy system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 928-938.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Łuszczyk & Krzysztof Malik & Barbara Siuta-Tokarska & Agnieszka Thier, 2023. "Direction of Changes in the Settlements for Prosumers of Photovoltaic Micro-Installations: The Example of Poland as the Economy in Transition in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Katarzyna Widera & Jacek Grabowski & Adam Smoliński, 2022. "The Application of Statistical Methods in the Construction of a Model for Identifying the Combustion of Waste in Heating Boilers Based on the Elemental Composition of Ashes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Adam Smoliński & Andrzej Bąk, 2022. "Clean Coal Technologies as an Effective Way in Global Carbon Dioxide Mitigation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-4, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sylwester Robak & Robert Raczkowski & Michał Piekarz, 2023. "Development of the Wind Generation Sector and Its Effect on the Grid Operation—The Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Smoliński, Adam & Howaniec, Natalia & Gąsior, Rafał & Polański, Jarosław & Magdziarczyk, Małgorzata, 2021. "Hydrogen rich gas production through co-gasification of low rank coal, flotation concentrates and municipal refuse derived fuel," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Aurelia Rybak & Aleksandra Rybak, 2021. "Methods of Ensuring Energy Security with the Use of Hard Coal—The Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-25, September.
    4. T. B. White & S. O. Petrovan & L. A. Bennun & T. Butterworth & A. P. Christie & H. Downey & S. B. Hunter & B. R. Jobson & S. O. S. E. zu Ermgassen & W. J. Sutherland, 2023. "Principles for using evidence to improve biodiversity impact mitigation by business," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 4719-4733, November.
    5. Kateryna Redko & Olena Borychenko & Anatolii Cherniavskyi & Volodymyr Saienko & Serhii Dudnikov, 2023. "Comparative Analysis of Innovative Development Strategies of Fuel and Energy Complex of Ukraine and the EU Countries: International Experience," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 301-308, March.
    6. Jingna Kou & Wei Li & Rui Zhang & Dingxiong Shi, 2023. "Hydrogen as a Transition Tool in a Fossil Fuel Resource Region: Taking China’s Coal Capital Shanxi as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Piotr F. Borowski, 2022. "Management of Energy Enterprises in Zero-Emission Conditions: Bamboo as an Innovative Biomass for the Production of Green Energy by Power Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Duarte, Rosa & Serrano, Ana, 2021. "Environmental analysis of structural and technological change in a context of trade expansion: Lessons from the EU enlargement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Nachatter Singh Garha, 2022. "From Decarbonization to Depopulation: An Emerging Challenge for the Carbon-Intensive Regions under the Energy Transition in Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    10. Mariusz Pyra, 2023. "Simulation of the Progress of the Decarbonization Process in Poland’s Road Transport Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-21, June.
    11. Patrycjusz Zarębski & Dominik Katarzyński, 2023. "A Theoretical Framework for a Local Energy Innovation System Based on the Renewable Energy Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-24, April.
    12. Sylwia Mrozowska & Jan A. Wendt & Krzysztof Tomaszewski, 2021. "The Challenges of Poland’s Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Wadim Strielkowski & Lubomír Civín & Elena Tarkhanova & Manuela Tvaronavičienė & Yelena Petrenko, 2021. "Renewable Energy in the Sustainable Development of Electrical Power Sector: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Furmankiewicz, Marek & Hewitt, Richard J. & Kazak, Jan K., 2021. "Can rural stakeholders drive the low-carbon transition? Analysis of climate-related activities planned in local development strategies in Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Oskar Juszczyk & Juliusz Juszczyk & Sławomir Juszczyk & Josu Takala, 2022. "Barriers for Renewable Energy Technologies Diffusion: Empirical Evidence from Finland and Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, January.
    16. Sandro Sacchelli & Valerii Havrysh & Antonina Kalinichenko & Dariusz Suszanowicz, 2022. "Ground-Mounted Photovoltaic and Crop Cultivation: A Comparative Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Ewa Chomać-Pierzecka, 2023. "Pharmaceutical Companies in the Light of the Idea of Sustainable Development—An Analysis of Selected Aspects of Sustainable Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-23, May.
    18. Daniel Baron & Walter Bartl, 2024. "The Coal Phase-Out in Germany and Its Regional Impact on Economic Worries," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-26, June.
    19. Ewa Chomać-Pierzecka & Hubert Gąsiński & Joanna Rogozińska-Mitrut & Dariusz Soboń & Sebastian Zupok, 2023. "Review of Selected Aspects of Wind Energy Market Development in Poland and Lithuania in the Face of Current Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Piotr Bórawski & Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska & Lisa Holden & Tomasz Rokicki, 2022. "The Role of Renewable Energy Sources in Electricity Production in Poland and the Background of Energy Policy of the European Union at the Beginning of the COVID-19 Crisis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-17, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:16:p:5210-:d:620068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.