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Stacking Ensemble Method with the RNN Meta-Learner for Short-Term PV Power Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Andi A. H. Lateko

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan
    Department of Electrical Engineering, Muhammadiyah University of Makassar, Makassar 90221, Indonesia)

  • Hong-Tzer Yang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan)

  • Chao-Ming Huang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Kun Shan University, Tainan 710, Taiwan)

  • Happy Aprillia

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Process, Kalimantan Institute of Technology, Balikpapan 76127, Indonesia)

  • Che-Yuan Hsu

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan)

  • Jie-Lun Zhong

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan)

  • Nguyễn H. Phương

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan)

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting urges in economic and secure operations of power systems. To avoid an inaccurate individual forecasting model, we propose an approach for a one-day to three-day ahead PV power hourly forecasting based on the stacking ensemble model with a recurrent neural network (RNN) as a meta-learner. The proposed approach is built by using real weather data and forecasted weather data in the training and testing stages, respectively. To accommodate uncertain weather, a daily clustering method based on statistical features, e.g., daily average, maximum, and standard deviation of PV power is applied in the data sets. Historical PV power output and weather data are used to train and test the model. The single learner considered in this research are artificial neural network, deep neural network, support vector regressions, long short-term memory, and convolutional neural network. Then, RNN is used to combine the forecasting results of each single learner. It is also important to observe the best combination of the single learners in this paper. Furthermore, to compare the performance of the proposed method, a random forest ensemble instead of RNN is used as a benchmark for comparison. Mean relative error (MRE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are used as criteria to validate the accuracy of different forecasting models. The MRE of the proposed RNN ensemble learner model is 4.29%, which has significant improvements by about 7–40%, 7–30%, and 8% compared to the single models, the combinations of fewer single learners, and the benchmark method, respectively. The results show that the proposed method is promising for use in real PV power forecasting systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang & Happy Aprillia & Che-Yuan Hsu & Jie-Lun Zhong & Nguyễn H. Phương, 2021. "Stacking Ensemble Method with the RNN Meta-Learner for Short-Term PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-23, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:16:p:4733-:d:608350
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenhao Chen & Guangjie Han & Hongbo Zhu & Lyuchao Liao, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting with an Ensemble Model Using Densely Residual Block and Bi-LSTM Based on the Attention Mechanism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Abdallah Abdellatif & Hamza Mubarak & Shameem Ahmad & Tofael Ahmed & G. M. Shafiullah & Ahmad Hammoudeh & Hamdan Abdellatef & M. M. Rahman & Hassan Muwafaq Gheni, 2022. "Forecasting Photovoltaic Power Generation with a Stacking Ensemble Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Chao-Ming Huang & Shin-Ju Chen & Sung-Pei Yang, 2022. "A Parameter Estimation Method for a Photovoltaic Power Generation System Based on a Two-Diode Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Chao-Ming Huang & Shin-Ju Chen & Sung-Pei Yang & Hsin-Jen Chen, 2023. "One-Day-Ahead Hourly Wind Power Forecasting Using Optimized Ensemble Prediction Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2022. "Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Regression-Based Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
    7. Sarmas, Elissaios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Stamatopoulos, Efstathios & Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using meta-learning and numerical weather prediction independent Long Short-Term Memory models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

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