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Improving Energy Transition Analysis Tool through Hydropower Statistical Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Cristobal Gallego-Castillo

    (Aircraft and Space Vehicles Department, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Plaza Cardenal Cisneros 3, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • Marta Victoria

    (Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Inge Lehmanns Gade 10, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark
    iCLIMATE Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract

Reservoir and pumped hydro storage facilities represent one of the best options for providing flexibility at low marginal cost and very low life cycle carbon emissions. However, hydropower generation is subject to physical, environmental and regulatory constraints, which introduce complexity in the modelling of hydropower in the context of transition energy analysis. In this article, a probabilistic model for hydropower generation is developed in order to improve an hourly-resolved tool for transition path analysis presented in previous research. The model is based on time series analysis, which exploits the fact that the different constraints affecting hydropower generation were met in the past. The upgraded version of the transition path analysis tool shows a decrease in the hydropower flexibility as compared with previous published results, providing a better picture of the benefits and drawbacks associated with a specific transition path under analysis, for example in terms of assessing the probability of unserved energy. The upgraded version of the tool was employed to analyse the Spanish National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), finding consistence between proposals associated with the power system and related CO 2 reduction and share of renewable electricity targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristobal Gallego-Castillo & Marta Victoria, 2020. "Improving Energy Transition Analysis Tool through Hydropower Statistical Modelling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2020:i:1:p:98-:d:468870
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    References listed on IDEAS

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