IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i4p825-d320400.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Shining Zhang

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China)

  • Fang Yang

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China)

  • Changyi Liu

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China)

  • Xing Chen

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China)

  • Xin Tan

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China)

  • Yuanbing Zhou

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China)

  • Fei Guo

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1-A, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Weiyi Jiang

    (Faculty of science, Camperdown campus, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Sydney 2006, Australia)

Abstract

The industrial sector dominates the global energy consumption and carbon emissions in end use sectors, and it faces challenges in emission reductions to reach the Paris Agreement goals. This paper analyzes and quantifies the relationship between industrialization, energy systems, and carbon emissions. Firstly, it forecasts the global and regional industrialization trends under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway2 (SSP2) scenarios. Then, it projects the global and regional energy consumption that aligns with the industrialization trend, and optimizes the global energy supply system using the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) model for the industrial sector. Moreover, it develops an expanded Kaya identity to comprehensively investigate the drivers of industrial carbon emissions. In addition, it employs a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to track the historical contributions of various drivers of carbon emissions, as well as predictions into the future. This paper finds that economic development and population growth are the two largest drivers for historical industrial CO 2 emissions, and that carbon intensity and industry energy intensity are the top two drivers for the decrease of future industrial CO 2 emissions. Finally, it proposes three modes, i.e., clean supply, electrification, and energy efficiency for industrial emission reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Shining Zhang & Fang Yang & Changyi Liu & Xing Chen & Xin Tan & Yuanbing Zhou & Fei Guo & Weiyi Jiang, 2020. "Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:4:p:825-:d:320400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/4/825/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/4/825/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Freitas, Luciano Charlita & Kaneko, Shinji, 2011. "Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1495-1504, March.
    2. Stamatios Ntanos & Michalis Skordoulis & Grigorios Kyriakopoulos & Garyfallos Arabatzis & Miltiadis Chalikias & Spyros Galatsidas & Athanasios Batzios & Apostolia Katsarou, 2018. "Renewable Energy and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Shiqing Zhang & Jianwei Wang & Wenlong Zheng, 2018. "Decomposition Analysis of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions and Decoupling Status in China’s Logistics Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
    5. Ang, B. W. & Liu, F. L. & Chew, E. P., 2003. "Perfect decomposition techniques in energy and environmental analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 1561-1566, November.
    6. Hatzigeorgiou, Emmanouil & Polatidis, Heracles & Haralambopoulos, Dias, 2008. "CO2 emissions in Greece for 1990–2002: A decomposition analysis and comparison of results using the Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 492-499.
    7. Caraiani, Chirața & Lungu, Camelia I. & Dascălu, Cornelia, 2015. "Energy consumption and GDP causality: A three-step analysis for emerging European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-210.
    8. Ouyang, Xiaoling & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "An analysis of the driving forces of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in China’s industrial sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 838-849.
    9. Ebrahim Hosseini Nasab & Robab Aalami & Shermineh Foroughi Dahr & Mohammad Amin Sadeghzadeh, 2012. "An Analysis of Energy Consumption in Transportation and Industrial Sectors- a Multiplicative LMDI Approach with Application to Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 17(2), pages 1-17, spring.
    10. Mousavi, Babak & Lopez, Neil Stephen A. & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel & Chiu, Anthony S.F. & Blesl, Markus, 2017. "Driving forces of Iran's CO2 emissions from energy consumption: An LMDI decomposition approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 804-814.
    11. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modelling deep decarbonization of industrial energy consumption under 2-degree target: Comparing China, India and Western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1563-1572.
    12. Moutinho, Victor & Moreira, António Carrizo & Silva, Pedro Miguel, 2015. "The driving forces of change in energy-related CO2 emissions in Eastern, Western, Northern and Southern Europe: The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1485-1499.
    13. Taeyoung Jin & Jinsoo Kim, 2018. "Coal Consumption and Economic Growth: Panel Cointegration and Causality Evidence from OECD and Non-OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15, March.
    14. Sumabat, Ana Karmela & Lopez, Neil Stephen & Yu, Krista Danielle & Hao, Han & Li, Richard & Geng, Yong & Chiu, Anthony S.F., 2016. "Decomposition analysis of Philippine CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and electricity generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 795-804.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xianmei & Peng, Rui & Bai, Caiquan & Chi, Yuanying & Liu, Yuxiang, 2023. "Economic cost, energy transition, and pollutant mitigation: The effect of China's different mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    2. Cheng Huang & Yang Qu & Lingfang Huang & Xing Meng & Yulong Chen & Ping Pan, 2022. "Quantifying the Impact of Urban Form and Socio-Economic Development on China’s Carbon Emissions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Feng-Fan Liao & Wun-Hwa Chen, 2021. "Will the Management Structure of Energy Administrators Affect the Achievement of the Electrical Efficiency Mandatory Target for Taiwan Factories?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Di Peng & Haibin Liu, 2022. "Measurement and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from Coal Consumption in China Based on the Kaya-LMDI Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Zhaojing & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Kangyin & Mubarik, Muhammad Shujaat & Dong, Xiucheng, 2020. "Decomposition of the US CO2 emissions and its mitigation potential: An aggregate and sectoral analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Dong, Kangyin & Hochman, Gal & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2020. "Do drivers of CO2 emission growth alter overtime and by the stage of economic development?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Shigetomi, Yosuke & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi & Ogawa, Yuki & Shiraki, Hiroto & Yamamoto, Yuki & Ochi, Yuki & Ehara, Tomoki, 2018. "Driving forces underlying sub-national carbon dioxide emissions within the household sector and implications for the Paris Agreement targets in Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2321-2332.
    4. Md. Afzal Hossain & Jean Engo & Songsheng Chen, 2021. "The main factors behind Cameroon’s CO2 emissions before, during and after the economic crisis of the 1980s," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 4500-4520, March.
    5. Liang, Wei & Gan, Ting & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Dynamic evolution of characteristics and decomposition of factors influencing industrial carbon dioxide emissions in China: 1991–2015," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 93-106.
    6. Xue-Ting Jiang & Min Su & Rongrong Li, 2018. "Decomposition Analysis in Electricity Sector Output from Carbon Emissions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Linwei Ma & Chinhao Chong & Xi Zhang & Pei Liu & Weiqi Li & Zheng Li & Weidou Ni, 2018. "LMDI Decomposition of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Based on Energy and CO 2 Allocation Sankey Diagrams: The Method and an Application to China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-37, January.
    8. Jie-fang Dong & Qiang Wang & Chun Deng & Xing-min Wang & Xiao-lei Zhang, 2016. "How to Move China toward a Green-Energy Economy: From a Sector Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, April.
    9. Xianrui Liao & Wei Yang & Yichen Wang & Junnian Song, 2019. "Uncovering Variations, Determinants, and Disparities of Multisector-Level Final Energy Use of Industries Across Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Yang Yu & Qiuyue Kong, 2017. "Analysis on the influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China based on LMDI method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1691-1707, September.
    11. Rui Jiang & Rongrong Li & Qiuhong Wu, 2019. "Investigation for the Decomposition of Carbon Emissions in the USA with C-D Function and LMDI Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, January.
    12. Lima, Fátima & Nunes, Manuel Lopes & Cunha, Jorge & Lucena, André F.P., 2017. "Driving forces for aggregate energy consumption: A cross-country approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1033-1050.
    13. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s mining industry: Evidence and policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 77-87.
    14. Jung, Seok & An, Kyoung-Jin & Dodbiba, Gjergj & Fujita, Toyohisa, 2012. "Regional energy-related carbon emission characteristics and potential mitigation in eco-industrial parks in South Korea: Logarithmic mean Divisia index analysis based on the Kaya identity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 231-241.
    15. Yao Qian & Lang Sun & Quanyi Qiu & Lina Tang & Xiaoqi Shang & Chengxiu Lu, 2020. "Analysis of CO 2 Drivers and Emissions Forecast in a Typical Industry-Oriented County: Changxing County, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Decomposing the change in energy consumption in China's nonferrous metal industry: An empirical analysis based on the LMDI method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2652-2663.
    17. Fernández González, P. & Presno, M.J. & Landajo, M., 2015. "Regional and sectoral attribution to percentage changes in the European Divisia carbonization index," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1437-1452.
    18. Edwin Bernard F. Lisaba & Neil Stephen A. Lopez, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Comparison of Drivers to CO 2 Emissions in ASEAN: A Decomposition Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, May.
    19. De Oliveira-De Jesus, Paulo M., 2019. "Effect of generation capacity factors on carbon emission intensity of electricity of Latin America & the Caribbean, a temporal IDA-LMDI analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 516-526.
    20. Yue-Jun Zhang & Ya-Bin Da, 2013. "Decomposing the changes of energy-related carbon emissions in China: evidence from the PDA approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 1109-1122, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:4:p:825-:d:320400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.