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Generation Capacity Expansion Planning Considering Hourly Dynamics of Renewable Resources

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  • Heejung Park

    (School of Energy Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41556, Korea)

Abstract

As more generation capacity using renewable sources is accommodated in the power system, methods to represent the uncertainty of renewable sources become more important, and stochastic models with different methods for uncertainty representation are introduced. This paper investigates the impacts of hourly variability representation of random variables on a stochastic generation capacity expansion planning model. In order to represent the hourly variability as well as uncertainty of the random parameters such as wind power availability, solar irradiance, and load, AutoRegressive-To-Anything (ARTA) stochastic process is applied. By using autocorrelations and marginal distributions of the random parameters, a stochastic process with hourly intervals is generated, where generated random sample paths are used for scenarios. A mathematical formulation using stochastic programming is presented, and a modified IEEE 300-bus system with transmission line constraints is employed to the mathematical model as a test system. Optimal generation capacity solutions obtained using GAMS/CPLEX are compared to the ones from the model only capturing the uncertainty and seasonal variability of the random parameters. The comparison results indicate that the economic value of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation may be overestimated in the case where the hourly variability is not reflected; thus, ignoring the hourly variability may lead to higher building costs and higher capacity of solar PV systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Heejung Park, 2020. "Generation Capacity Expansion Planning Considering Hourly Dynamics of Renewable Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:21:p:5626-:d:435704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Seyed Hamed Jalalzad Mahvizani & Hossein Yektamoghadam & Rouzbeh Haghighi & Majid Dehghani & Amirhossein Nikoofard & Mahdi Khosravy & Tomonobu Senjyu, 2022. "A Game Theory Approach Using the TLBO Algorithm for Generation Expansion Planning by Applying Carbon Curtailment Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Berna Tektaş & Hasan Hüseyin Turan & Nihat Kasap & Ferhan Çebi & Dursun Delen, 2022. "A Fuzzy Prescriptive Analytics Approach to Power Generation Capacity Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, April.
    3. Heejung Park, 2021. "A Stochastic Planning Model for Battery Energy Storage Systems Coupled with Utility-Scale Solar Photovoltaics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-13, February.
    4. Zhouchun Huang & Qipeng P. Zheng & Andrew L. Liu, 2022. "A Nested Cross Decomposition Algorithm for Power System Capacity Expansion with Multiscale Uncertainties," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 1919-1939, July.
    5. Majid Dehghani & Mohammad Taghipour & Saleh Sadeghi Gougheri & Amirhossein Nikoofard & Gevork B. Gharehpetian & Mahdi Khosravy, 2021. "A Deep Learning-Based Approach for Generation Expansion Planning Considering Power Plants Lifetime," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, December.

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