IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i11p2857-d367016.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Model Based on the Localized Emotion Reconstruction Emotional Neural Network

Author

Listed:
  • Yufei Wang

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China)

  • Li Zhu

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China)

  • Hua Xue

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China)

Abstract

Due to the intermittency and randomness of photovoltaic (PV) power, the PV power prediction accuracy of the traditional data-driven prediction models is difficult to improve. A prediction model based on the localized emotion reconstruction emotional neural network (LERENN) is proposed, which is motivated by chaos theory and the neuropsychological theory of emotion. Firstly, the chaotic nonlinear dynamics approach is used to draw the hidden characteristics of PV power time series, and the single-step cyclic rolling localized prediction mechanism is derived. Secondly, in order to establish the correlation between the prediction model and the specific characteristics of PV power time series, the extended signal and emotional parameters are reconstructed with a relatively certain local basis. Finally, the proposed prediction model is trained and tested for single-step and three-step prediction using the actual measured data. Compared with the prediction model based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, limbic-based artificial emotional neural network (LiAENN), the back propagation neural network (BPNN), and the persistence model (PM), numerical results show that the proposed prediction model achieves better accuracy and better detection of ramp events for different weather conditions when only using PV power data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yufei Wang & Li Zhu & Hua Xue, 2020. "Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Model Based on the Localized Emotion Reconstruction Emotional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:11:p:2857-:d:367016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/11/2857/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/11/2857/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruijin Zhu & Weilin Guo & Xuejiao Gong, 2019. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Based on k -Fold Cross-Validation and an Ensemble Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Happy Aprillia & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2020. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using a Convolutional Neural Network–Salp Swarm Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Honglu Zhu & Xu Li & Qiao Sun & Ling Nie & Jianxi Yao & Gang Zhao, 2015. "A Power Prediction Method for Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Wavelet Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Diagne, Maimouna & David, Mathieu & Lauret, Philippe & Boland, John & Schmutz, Nicolas, 2013. "Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 65-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xiang & Ding, Kun & Zhang, Jingwei & Han, Wei & Liu, Yongjie & Yang, Zenan & Weng, Shuai, 2022. "Online prediction of ultra-short-term photovoltaic power using chaotic characteristic analysis, improved PSO and KELM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    2. Domenico Palladino & Iole Nardi & Cinzia Buratti, 2020. "Artificial Neural Network for the Thermal Comfort Index Prediction: Development of a New Simplified Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-27, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2022. "Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Regression-Based Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Varaha Satra Bharath Kurukuru & Ahteshamul Haque & Mohammed Ali Khan & Subham Sahoo & Azra Malik & Frede Blaabjerg, 2021. "A Review on Artificial Intelligence Applications for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-35, August.
    3. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    4. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
    5. Boland, John, 2015. "Spatial-temporal forecasting of solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 607-616.
    6. Javier Borquez & Hector Chavez & Karina A. Barbosa & Marcela Jamett & Rodrigo Acuna, 2020. "A Simple Distribution Energy Tariff under the Penetration of DG," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, April.
    7. Wang, Zhenyu & Zhang, Yunpeng & Li, Guorong & Zhang, Jinlong & Zhou, Hai & Wu, Ji, 2024. "A novel solar irradiance forecasting method based on multi-physical process of atmosphere optics and LSTM-BP model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    8. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. John Boland & Sleiman Farah & Lei Bai, 2022. "Forecasting of Wind and Solar Farm Output in the Australian National Electricity Market: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.
    12. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    13. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    14. Reikard, Gordon & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Jensen, Tara, 2017. "Forecasting ground-level irradiance over short horizons: Time series, meteorological, and time-varying parameter models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 474-485.
    15. Àlex Alonso & Jordi de la Hoz & Helena Martín & Sergio Coronas & Pep Salas & José Matas, 2020. "A Comprehensive Model for the Design of a Microgrid under Regulatory Constraints Using Synthetical Data Generation and Stochastic Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-26, October.
    16. Da Liu & Kun Sun & Han Huang & Pingzhou Tang, 2018. "Monthly Load Forecasting Based on Economic Data by Decomposition Integration Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, September.
    17. Kong, Xiangfei & Du, Xinyu & Xue, Guixiang & Xu, Zhijie, 2023. "Multi-step short-term solar radiation prediction based on empirical mode decomposition and gated recurrent unit optimized via an attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    18. Louis Desportes & Inbar Fijalkow & Pierre Andry, 2021. "Deep Reinforcement Learning for Hybrid Energy Storage Systems: Balancing Lead and Hydrogen Storage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-22, August.
    19. AlSkaif, Tarek & Dev, Soumyabrata & Visser, Lennard & Hossari, Murhaf & van Sark, Wilfried, 2020. "A systematic analysis of meteorological variables for PV output power estimation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 12-22.
    20. Hannes Schwarz & Valentin Bertsch & Wolf Fichtner, 2018. "Two-stage stochastic, large-scale optimization of a decentralized energy system: a case study focusing on solar PV, heat pumps and storage in a residential quarter," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(1), pages 265-310, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:11:p:2857-:d:367016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.