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Assessment of Flexibilisation Potential by Changing Energy Sources Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Heiko Dunkelberg

    (Department for Sustainable Products and Processes (upp), University of Kassel, 34125 Kassel, Germany)

  • Maximilian Sondermann

    (Department for Sustainable Products and Processes (upp), University of Kassel, 34125 Kassel, Germany)

  • Henning Meschede

    (Department for Sustainable Products and Processes (upp), University of Kassel, 34125 Kassel, Germany)

  • Jens Hesselbach

    (Department for Sustainable Products and Processes (upp), University of Kassel, 34125 Kassel, Germany)

Abstract

In the fight against anthropogenic climate change, the benefit of the integration of fluctuating renewable energies (wind and photovoltaics) into the electricity grid is a widely proved concept. At the same time, a fluctuating and decentralised supply of energy, especially at lower voltage levels, leads to a local discrepancy in the power balance between generation and consumption. A possible solution in connection with demand side management is the grid-oriented flexibilisation of energy demand. The present study shows how the use of an innovative hybrid-redundant high-temperature heat system (combined heat and power (CHP), power-to-heat system (PtH), gas boiler) can contribute to a flexibilisation of the electrical energy demand of plastics processing companies. In this context, the flexibilisation potential of a company is to be understood as the grid-related change of the energy supply through a change of the energy sources within the framework of the process heat supply. For this purpose, an omniscient control algorithm is developed that specifies the schedule of the individual system components. A sensitivity analysis is used to test the functionality of the control algorithm. Determination of the electrical flexibilisation potential is carried out via a comprehensive simulation study using Monte Carlo methods. For this purpose, the residual load curves of four characteristic distribution grids with a high share of renewable energies as well as heat load profiles of injection moulding machines are taken into consideration. A frequency distribution provides information on the electrical flexibilisation potential to be expected depending on the various combinations. The evaluation is carried out using a specially introduced logic, which identifies grid-relevant changes in the company's power consumption as flexibilisation potential based on a reference load curve. The results show that a reliable energy supply for production is possible despite flexibilisation. Depending on the grid under consideration, there are differences in the exploitation of the potential, which essentially depends on the installed renewable capacity. Depending on the scenario under consideration, an average of up to 1486 kWh el can be shifted in a positive direction and 1199 kWh el in a negative direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Heiko Dunkelberg & Maximilian Sondermann & Henning Meschede & Jens Hesselbach, 2019. "Assessment of Flexibilisation Potential by Changing Energy Sources Using Monte Carlo Simulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:4:p:711-:d:208072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bloess, Andreas & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2018. "Power-to-heat for renewable energy integration: A review of technologies, modeling approaches, and flexibility potentials," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 212, pages 1611-1626.
    2. Klein, Konstantin & Langner, Robert & Kalz, Doreen & Herkel, Sebastian & Henning, Hans-Martin, 2016. "Grid support coefficients for electricity-based heating and cooling and field data analysis of present-day installations in Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 853-867.
    3. Zeng, Yuan & Zhang, Ruiwen & Wang, Dong & Mu, Yunfei & Jia, Hongjie, 2019. "A regional power grid operation and planning method considering renewable energy generation and load control," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 304-313.
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