IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i15p2888-d252107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Management through Cost Forecasting for Residential Buildings in New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Linlin Zhao

    (College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Zhansheng Liu

    (College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Jasper Mbachu

    (Faculty of Society & Design, Bond University, Gold Coast 4226, Australia)

Abstract

Over the last two decades, the residential building sector has been one of the largest energy consumption sectors in New Zealand. The relationship between that sector and household energy consumption should be carefully studied in order to optimize the energy consumption structure and satisfy energy demands. Researchers have made efforts in this field; however, few have concentrated on the association between household energy use and the cost of residential buildings. This study examined the correlation between household energy use and residential building cost. Analysis of the data indicates that they are significantly correlated. Hence, this study proposes time series methods, including the exponential smoothing method and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting residential building costs of five categories of residential buildings (one-storey house, two-storey house, townhouse, residential apartment and retirement village building) in New Zealand. Moreover, the artificial neutral networks (ANNs) model was used to forecast the future usage of three types of household energy (electricity, gas and petrol) using the residential building costs. The t-test was used to validate the effectiveness of the obtained ANN models. The results indicate that the ANN models can generate acceptable forecasts. The primary contributions of this paper are twofold: (1) Identify the close correlation between household energy use and residential building costs; (2) provide a new clue for optimizing energy management.

Suggested Citation

  • Linlin Zhao & Zhansheng Liu & Jasper Mbachu, 2019. "Energy Management through Cost Forecasting for Residential Buildings in New Zealand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:15:p:2888-:d:252107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/15/2888/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/15/2888/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lü, Xiaoshu & Lu, Tao & Kibert, Charles J. & Viljanen, Martti, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting energy consumption for heterogeneous buildings using a physical–statistical approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 261-275.
    2. Wang, Xiaoyu & Luo, Dongkun & Zhao, Xu & Sun, Zhu, 2018. "Estimates of energy consumption in China using a self-adaptive multi-verse optimizer-based support vector machine with rolling cross-validation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 539-548.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
    4. Fumo, Nelson & Rafe Biswas, M.A., 2015. "Regression analysis for prediction of residential energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 332-343.
    5. Ballarini, Ilaria & Corrado, Vincenzo & Madonna, Francesco & Paduos, Simona & Ravasio, Franco, 2017. "Energy refurbishment of the Italian residential building stock: energy and cost analysis through the application of the building typology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 148-160.
    6. Yao, Jian, 2012. "Energy optimization of building design for different housing units in apartment buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 330-337.
    7. Baglivo, Cristina & Congedo, Paolo Maria & D'Agostino, Delia & Zacà, Ilaria, 2015. "Cost-optimal analysis and technical comparison between standard and high efficient mono-residential buildings in a warm climate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 560-575.
    8. Silva, Felipe L.C. & Souza, Reinaldo C. & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando L. & Lourenco, Plutarcho M. & Calili, Rodrigo F., 2018. "A bottom-up methodology for long term electricity consumption forecasting of an industrial sector - Application to pulp and paper sector in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 1107-1118.
    9. Amber, K.P. & Ahmad, R. & Aslam, M.W. & Kousar, A. & Usman, M. & Khan, M.S., 2018. "Intelligent techniques for forecasting electricity consumption of buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 886-893.
    10. Maia, André Luis Santiago & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2011. "Holt's exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 740-759, July.
    11. Copiello, Sergio, 2015. "Achieving affordable housing through energy efficiency strategy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 288-298.
    12. Beccali, Marco & Cellura, Maurizio & Fontana, Mario & Longo, Sonia & Mistretta, Marina, 2013. "Energy retrofit of a single-family house: Life cycle net energy saving and environmental benefits," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 283-293.
    13. Kaboli, S. Hr. Aghay & Fallahpour, A. & Selvaraj, J. & Rahim, N.A., 2017. "Long-term electrical energy consumption formulating and forecasting via optimized gene expression programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 144-164.
    14. Chengdong Li & Zixiang Ding & Dongbin Zhao & Jianqiang Yi & Guiqing Zhang, 2017. "Building Energy Consumption Prediction: An Extreme Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Kovačič, Miha & Šarler, Božidar, 2014. "Genetic programming prediction of the natural gas consumption in a steel plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 273-284.
    16. James Wong & Albert Chan & Y. H. Chiang, 2005. "Time series forecasts of the construction labour market in Hong Kong: the Box-Jenkins approach," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 979-991.
    17. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    18. Krol, Robert, 2013. "Evaluating state revenue forecasting under a flexible loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 282-289.
    19. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    20. Estiri, Hossein, 2015. "The indirect role of households in shaping US residential energy demand patterns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 585-594.
    21. S. Thomas Ng & Sai On Cheung & Martin Skitmore & Toby Wong, 2004. "An integrated regression analysis and time series model for construction tender price index forecasting," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 483-493.
    22. Li, Danny H.W. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different climate zones – A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 103-112.
    23. Maia, André Luis Santiago & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2011. "Holt’s exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 740-759.
    24. Wang, Jie & Wang, Jun, 2016. "Forecasting energy market indices with recurrent neural networks: Case study of crude oil price fluctuations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 365-374.
    25. de Oliveira, Erick Meira & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2018. "Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 776-788.
    26. Samuel Domínguez & Juan J. Sendra & Angel L. León & Paula M. Esquivias, 2012. "Towards Energy Demand Reduction in Social Housing Buildings: Envelope System Optimization Strategies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(7), pages 1-25, July.
    27. Zeng, Chunlei & Wu, Changchun & Zuo, Lili & Zhang, Bin & Hu, Xingqiao, 2014. "Predicting energy consumption of multiproduct pipeline using artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 791-798.
    28. Zeng, Yu-Rong & Zeng, Yi & Choi, Beomjin & Wang, Lin, 2017. "Multifactor-influenced energy consumption forecasting using enhanced back-propagation neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 381-396.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Dylewski, 2019. "Optimal Thermal Insulation Thicknesses of External Walls Based on Economic and Ecological Heating Cost," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Junqi Wang & Rundong Liu & Linfeng Zhang & Hussain Syed ASAD & Erlin Meng, 2019. "Triggering Optimal Control of Air Conditioning Systems by Event-Driven Mechanism: Comparing Direct and Indirect Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee & Sthianrapab Naluang, 2019. "The Efficiency of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand: Adapting the SEM-VARIMAX Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-21, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amber, K.P. & Ahmad, R. & Aslam, M.W. & Kousar, A. & Usman, M. & Khan, M.S., 2018. "Intelligent techniques for forecasting electricity consumption of buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 886-893.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Svetunkov, Ivan & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2015. "Complex Exponential Smoothing," MPRA Paper 69394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. De Boeck, L. & Verbeke, S. & Audenaert, A. & De Mesmaeker, L., 2015. "Improving the energy performance of residential buildings: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 960-975.
    6. Hu, Yusha & Li, Jigeng & Hong, Mengna & Ren, Jingzheng & Lin, Ruojue & Liu, Yue & Liu, Mengru & Man, Yi, 2019. "Short term electric load forecasting model and its verification for process industrial enterprises based on hybrid GA-PSO-BPNN algorithm—A case study of papermaking process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1215-1227.
    7. Paweł Ziemba & Aneta Becker & Jarosław Becker, 2021. "Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Jan G. De Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Zhou, Cheng & Chen, Xiyang, 2019. "Predicting energy consumption: A multiple decomposition-ensemble approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    11. Yuo-Hsien Shiau & Su-Fen Yang & Rishan Adha & Syamsiyatul Muzayyanah, 2022. "Modeling Industrial Energy Demand in Relation to Subsector Manufacturing Output and Climate Change: Artificial Neural Network Insights," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Gao, Feng & Shao, Xueyan, 2022. "A novel interval decomposition ensemble model for interval carbon price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    13. Liu, Che & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Chenghui & Li, Fan, 2020. "A hybrid prediction model for residential electricity consumption using holt-winters and extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    14. Barrow, Devon K., 2016. "Forecasting intraday call arrivals using the seasonal moving average method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 6088-6096.
    15. Marlon Mesquita Lopes Cabreira & Felipe Leite Coelho da Silva & Josiane da Silva Cordeiro & Ronald Miguel Serrano Hernández & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2024. "A Hybrid Approach for Hierarchical Forecasting of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-15, June.
    16. Huber, Jakob & Stuckenschmidt, Heiner, 2020. "Daily retail demand forecasting using machine learning with emphasis on calendric special days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1420-1438.
    17. Cristina Baglivo & Paolo Maria Congedo & Matteo Di Cataldo & Luigi Damiano Coluccia & Delia D’Agostino, 2017. "Envelope Design Optimization by Thermal Modelling of a Building in a Warm Climate," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-34, November.
    18. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.
    19. Pesantez, Jorge E. & Li, Binbin & Lee, Christopher & Zhao, Zhizhen & Butala, Mark & Stillwell, Ashlynn S., 2023. "A Comparison Study of Predictive Models for Electricity Demand in a Diverse Urban Environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    20. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:15:p:2888-:d:252107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.