IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecnmx/v8y2020i2p25-d369918.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tornado Occurrences in the United States: A Spatio-Temporal Point Process Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Fernanda Valente

    (FEARP-USP, Av. Bandeirantes, 3900-Vila Monte Alegre, Ribeirão Preto SP 14040-905, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.
    We thank Guest Editor Claudio Morana and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments and criticisms.)

  • Márcio Laurini

    (FEARP-USP, Av. Bandeirantes, 3900-Vila Monte Alegre, Ribeirão Preto SP 14040-905, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.
    We thank Guest Editor Claudio Morana and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments and criticisms.)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the tornado occurrences in the Unites States. To perform inference procedures for the spatio-temporal point process we adopt a dynamic representation of Log-Gaussian Cox Process. This representation is based on the decomposition of intensity function in components of trend, cycles, and spatial effects. In this model, spatial effects are also represented by a dynamic functional structure, which allows analyzing the possible changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of the occurrence of tornadoes due to possible changes in climate patterns. The model was estimated using Bayesian inference through the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We use data from the Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Database between 1954 and 2018, and the results provided evidence, from new perspectives, that trends in annual tornado occurrences in the United States have remained relatively constant, supporting previously reported findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernanda Valente & Márcio Laurini, 2020. "Tornado Occurrences in the United States: A Spatio-Temporal Point Process Approach," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:25-:d:369918
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/8/2/25/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/8/2/25/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Simpson & J. B. Illian & F. Lindgren & S. H. Sørbye & H. Rue, 2016. "Going off grid: computationally efficient inference for log-Gaussian Cox processes," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 103(1), pages 49-70.
    2. Cameron Lee, 2012. "Utilizing synoptic climatological methods to assess the impacts of climate change on future tornado-favorable environments," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 325-343, June.
    3. M. P. Laurini, 2019. "A spatio‐temporal approach to estimate patterns of climate change," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), February.
    4. Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392, April.
    5. Finn Lindgren & Håvard Rue & Johan Lindström, 2011. "An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: the stochastic partial differential equation approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(4), pages 423-498, September.
    6. Morana, Claudio & Sbrana, Giacomo, 2019. "Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 274-294.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. André Victor Ribeiro Amaral & Elias Teixeira Krainski & Ruiman Zhong & Paula Moraga, 2024. "Model-Based Geostatistics Under Spatially Varying Preferential Sampling," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 766-792, December.
    2. John M. Humphreys & Robert B. Srygley & David H. Branson, 2022. "Geographic Variation in Migratory Grasshopper Recruitment under Projected Climate Change," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Unn Dahlén & Johan Lindström & Marko Scholze, 2020. "Spatiotemporal reconstructions of global CO2‐fluxes using Gaussian Markov random fields," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), June.
    4. David L. Miller & Richard Glennie & Andrew E. Seaton, 2020. "Understanding the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation Approach to Smoothing," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Laura Serra & Claudio Detotto & Marco Vannini, 2022. "Public lands as a mitigator of wildfire burned area using a spatio-temporal model applied in Sardinia," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 621-635, December.
    6. Jorge Sicacha-Parada & Diego Pavon-Jordan & Ingelin Steinsland & Roel May & Bård Stokke & Ingar Jostein Øien, 2022. "A Spatial Modeling Framework for Monitoring Surveys with Different Sampling Protocols with a Case Study for Bird Abundance in Mid-Scandinavia," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 562-591, September.
    7. Williamson, Laura D. & Scott, Beth E. & Laxton, Megan & Illian, Janine B. & Todd, Victoria L.G. & Miller, Peter I. & Brookes, Kate L., 2022. "Comparing distribution of harbour porpoise using generalized additive models and hierarchical Bayesian models with integrated nested laplace approximation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 470(C).
    8. Janine B. Illian & David F. R. P. Burslem, 2017. "Improving the usability of spatial point process methodology: an interdisciplinary dialogue between statistics and ecology," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 101(4), pages 495-520, October.
    9. Wang, Craig & Furrer, Reinhard, 2021. "Combining heterogeneous spatial datasets with process-based spatial fusion models: A unifying framework," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Federico Ferraccioli & Eleonora Arnone & Livio Finos & James O. Ramsay & Laura M. Sangalli, 2021. "Nonparametric density estimation over complicated domains," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 83(2), pages 346-368, April.
    11. Yuan Yan & Eva Cantoni & Chris Field & Margaret Treble & Joanna Mills Flemming, 2023. "Spatiotemporal modeling of mature‐at‐length data using a sliding window approach," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), March.
    12. Bondo, Kristin J. & Rosenberry, Christopher S. & Stainbrook, David & Walter, W. David, 2024. "Comparing risk of chronic wasting disease occurrence using Bayesian hierarchical spatial models and different surveillance types," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    13. Daniel Cervone & Alex D’Amour & Luke Bornn & Kirk Goldsberry, 2016. "A Multiresolution Stochastic Process Model for Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(514), pages 585-599, April.
    14. Jonathan Wakefield & Taylor Okonek & Jon Pedersen, 2020. "Small Area Estimation for Disease Prevalence Mapping," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(2), pages 398-418, August.
    15. I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya & Henk Folmer, 2024. "High-Resolution Spatiotemporal Forecasting with Missing Observations Including an Application to Daily Particulate Matter 2.5 Concentrations in Jakarta Province, Indonesia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-29, September.
    16. Zhang, Shen & Liu, Xin & Tang, Jinjun & Cheng, Shaowu & Qi, Yong & Wang, Yinhai, 2018. "Spatio-temporal modeling of destination choice behavior through the Bayesian hierarchical approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 537-551.
    17. Fasil Wagnew & Kefyalew Addis Alene & Matthew Kelly & Darren Gray, 2023. "Geospatial Overlap of Undernutrition and Tuberculosis in Ethiopia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(21), pages 1-15, October.
    18. Somnath Chaudhuri & Gerard Giménez-Adsuar & Marc Saez & Maria A. Barceló, 2022. "PandemonCAT: Monitoring the COVID-19 Pandemic in Catalonia, Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-22, April.
    19. Matthew J. Heaton & Abhirup Datta & Andrew O. Finley & Reinhard Furrer & Joseph Guinness & Rajarshi Guhaniyogi & Florian Gerber & Robert B. Gramacy & Dorit Hammerling & Matthias Katzfuss & Finn Lindgr, 2019. "A Case Study Competition Among Methods for Analyzing Large Spatial Data," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 24(3), pages 398-425, September.
    20. Sameh Abdulah & Yuxiao Li & Jian Cao & Hatem Ltaief & David E. Keyes & Marc G. Genton & Ying Sun, 2023. "Large‐scale environmental data science with ExaGeoStatR," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:25-:d:369918. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.