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Is Monetary Policy a Driver of Cryptocurrencies? Evidence from a Structural Break GARCH-MIDAS Approach

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  • Md Samsul Alam

    (College of Business, Law and Social Sciences, University of Derby, Derby DE22 1GB, UK)

  • Alessandra Amendola

    (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisciano, Italy)

  • Vincenzo Candila

    (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisciano, Italy)

  • Shahram Dehghan Jabarabadi

    (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisciano, Italy)

Abstract

The introduction of Bitcoin as a distributed peer-to-peer digital cash in 2008 and its first recorded real transaction in 2010 served the function of a medium of exchange, transforming the financial landscape by offering a decentralized, peer-to-peer alternative to conventional monetary systems. This study investigates the intricate relationship between cryptocurrencies and monetary policy, with a particular focus on their long-term volatility dynamics. We enhance the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) through the adoption of the SB-GARCH-MIDAS (Structural Break Mixed Data Sampling) to analyze the daily returns of three prominent cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Binance Coin, and XRP) alongside monthly monetary policy data from the USA and South Africa with respect to potential presence of a structural break in the monetary policy, which provided us with two GARCH-MIDAS models. As of 30 June 2022, the most recent data observation for all samples are noted, although it is essential to acknowledge that the data sample time range varies due to differences in cryptocurrency data accessibility. Our research incorporates model confidence set (MCS) procedures and assesses model performance using various metrics, including AIC, BIC, MSE, and QLIKE, supplemented by comprehensive residual diagnostics. Notably, our analysis reveals that the SB-GARCH-MIDAS model outperforms others in forecasting cryptocurrency volatility. Furthermore, we uncover that, in contrast to their younger counterparts, the long-term volatility of older cryptocurrencies is sensitive to structural breaks in exogenous variables. Our study sheds light on the diversification within the cryptocurrency space, shaped by technological characteristics and temporal considerations, and provides practical insights, emphasizing the importance of incorporating monetary policy in assessing cryptocurrency volatility. The implications of our study extend to portfolio management with dynamic consideration, offering valuable insights for investors and decision-makers, which underscores the significance of considering both cryptocurrency types and the economic context of host countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Samsul Alam & Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Shahram Dehghan Jabarabadi, 2024. "Is Monetary Policy a Driver of Cryptocurrencies? Evidence from a Structural Break GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:12:y:2024:i:1:p:2-:d:1314080
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christos Alexakis & Giulio Anselmi & Giovanni Petrella, 2024. "Flight to cryptos: Evidence on the use of cryptocurrencies in times of geopolitical tensions," Post-Print hal-04184338, HAL.
    2. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Benlagha, Noureddine & Maouchi, Youcef, 2020. "Investigating the dynamic relationship between cryptocurrencies and conventional assets: Implications for financial investors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 198-217.
    3. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yin, Libo, 2017. "Oil price volatility and macroeconomic fundamentals: A regime switching GARCH-MIDAS model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 130-142.
    4. Alessandra Amendola & Marinella Boccia & Vincenzo Candila & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2020. "Energy and non–energy Commodities: Spillover Effects on African Stock Markets," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 1-7.
    5. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
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