IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v62y2024ipbs1544612324002502.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic linkages among bitcoin, equity, gold and oil: An implied volatility perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Choudhary, Sangita
  • Jain, Anshul
  • Biswal, Pratap Chandra

Abstract

Bitcoin Implied Volatility, derived from the recently launched options on Bitcoin, provides a new forward-looking measure of uncertainty in financial markets. This paper explores its long-run and short-run relationships with the implied volatilities of equity, gold, and oil. The NARDL model reveals a long-run relationship among Bitcoin volatility and others. Kyrtsou-Labys Nonlinear Causality tests established pair-wise causality between the implied volatilities under study. Our findings highlight the integration of Bitcoin markets with global financial markets, indicating the coming of age of the Bitcoin market.

Suggested Citation

  • Choudhary, Sangita & Jain, Anshul & Biswal, Pratap Chandra, 2024. "Dynamic linkages among bitcoin, equity, gold and oil: An implied volatility perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:62:y:2024:i:pb:s1544612324002502
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105220
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324002502
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105220?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N.S. Al-Nassar & Sabri Boubaker & A. Chaibi & B. Makram, 2023. "In Search of Hedges and Safe Havens during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Gold versus Bitcoin, Oil, and Oil Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-04435437, HAL.
    2. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The economics of BitCoin price formation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1799-1815, April.
    3. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2021. "Implied volatility indices – A review," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 303-329.
    4. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2022. "Spillovers in Higher-Order Moments of Crude Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 398-406.
    5. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Benlagha, Noureddine & Maouchi, Youcef, 2020. "Investigating the dynamic relationship between cryptocurrencies and conventional assets: Implications for financial investors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 198-217.
    6. Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Lang, Kun, 2021. "Can both Bitcoin and gold serve as safe-haven assets? — A comparative analysis based on the NARDL model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Pho, Kim Hung & Ly, Sel & Lu, Richard & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2021. "Is Bitcoin a better portfolio diversifier than gold? A copula and sectoral analysis for China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Mohammad Zahid Hasan & Ron P. McIver, 2023. "Bitcoin, gold, and the VIX: short- and long-term effects of economic policy uncertainty," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 761-765, March.
    9. Conlon, Thomas & McGee, Richard, 2020. "Safe haven or risky hazard? Bitcoin during the Covid-19 bear market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    12. Yin, Libo & Nie, Jing & Han, Liyan, 2021. "Understanding cryptocurrency volatility: The role of oil market shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-253.
    13. Das, Debojyoti & Le Roux, Corlise Liesl & Jana, R.K. & Dutta, Anupam, 2020. "Does Bitcoin hedge crude oil implied volatility and structural shocks? A comparison with gold, commodity and the US Dollar," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    14. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok, 2022. "Bitcoin: An inflation hedge but not a safe haven," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    15. Goodell, John W. & Goutte, Stephane, 2021. "Co-movement of COVID-19 and Bitcoin: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    16. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2007. "Does implied volatility provide any information beyond that captured in model-based volatility forecasts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2535-2549, August.
    17. Bouri, Elie & Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C. & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Cointegration and nonlinear causality amongst gold, oil, and the Indian stock market: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 201-206.
    18. Dimos S. Kambouroudis & David G. McMillan & Katerina Tsakou, 2016. "Forecasting Stock Return Volatility: A Comparison of GARCH, Implied Volatility, and Realized Volatility Models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(12), pages 1127-1163, December.
    19. Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko & Maria T. Gonzalez-Perez, 2015. "Exploring Return Dynamics via Corridor Implied Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(10), pages 2902-2945.
    20. Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Peijin, 2021. "Does Bitcoin or gold react to financial stress alike? Evidence from the U.S. and China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 629-648.
    21. Elie Bouri & Naji Jalkh & Peter Molnár & David Roubaud, 2017. "Bitcoin for energy commodities before and after the December 2013 crash: diversifier, hedge or safe haven?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(50), pages 5063-5073, October.
    22. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    23. Charles J. Corrado & Thomas W. Miller, Jr., 2005. "The forecast quality of CBOE implied volatility indexes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 339-373, April.
    24. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    25. Xu, Xinzhong & Taylor, Stephen J., 1995. "Conditional volatility and the informational efficiency of the PHLX currency options market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 803-821, August.
    26. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2006. "Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 256-266, March.
    27. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
    28. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    29. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Sensoy, Ahmet & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "The relationship between implied volatility and cryptocurrency returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    30. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    31. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
    32. Bart Frijns & Christian Tallau & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2010. "The information content of implied volatility: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 134-155, February.
    33. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Abrar, Afsheen & Yarovaya, Larisa & Shah, Adil Ahmad, 2023. "Non-linear relationship between oil and cryptocurrencies: Evidence from returns and shocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    34. Kurka, Josef, 2019. "Do cryptocurrencies and traditional asset classes influence each other?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 38-46.
    35. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
    36. Feng, Hao & Gao, Da & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Does Bitcoin affect decomposed oil shocks differently? Evidence from a quantile-based framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    37. Beckers, Stan, 1981. "Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 363-381, September.
    38. Pratap Chandra Pati & Parama Barai & Prabina Rajib, 2018. "Forecasting stock market volatility and information content of implied volatility index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(23), pages 2552-2568, May.
    39. Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Safe haven, hedge and diversification for G7 stock markets: Gold versus bitcoin," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 212-224.
    40. Choi, Insu & Kim, Woo Chang, 2023. "Estimating Historical Downside Risks of Global Financial Market Indices via Inflation Rate-Adjusted Dependence Graphs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    41. Wen, Fenghua & Tong, Xi & Ren, Xiaohang, 2022. "Gold or Bitcoin, which is the safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    42. Corbet, Shaen & Eraslan, Veysel & Lucey, Brian & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2019. "The effectiveness of technical trading rules in cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 32-37.
    43. Pyo, Sujin & Lee, Jaewook, 2020. "Do FOMC and macroeconomic announcements affect Bitcoin prices?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    44. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    45. Noshaba Zulfiqar & Saqib Gulzar, 2021. "Implied volatility estimation of bitcoin options and the stylized facts of option pricing," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
    46. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    47. Guesmi, Khaled & Saadi, Samir & Abid, Ilyes & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Portfolio diversification with virtual currency: Evidence from bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 431-437.
    48. Chkili, Walid & Ben Rejeb, Aymen & Arfaoui, Mongi, 2021. "Does bitcoin provide hedge to Islamic stock markets for pre- and during COVID-19 outbreak? A comparative analysis with gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    49. Baur, Dirk G. & Hoang, Lai T., 2021. "A crypto safe haven against Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    50. Demir, Ender & Simonyan, Serdar & García-Gómez, Conrado-Diego & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2021. "The asymmetric effect of bitcoin on altcoins: evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    51. Symitsi, Efthymia & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J., 2018. "Return, volatility and shock spillovers of Bitcoin with energy and technology companies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 127-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O. & López, Raquel & Ramos, Ana Rosa, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and oil price shocks: A NARDL analysis in the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Syuhada, Khreshna & Hakim, Arief & Suprijanto, Djoko & Muchtadi-Alamsyah, Intan & Arbi, Lukman, 2022. "Is Tether a safe haven of safe haven amid COVID-19? An assessment against Bitcoin and oil using improved measures of risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Ha, Le Thanh & Nham, Nguyen Thi Hong, 2022. "An application of a TVP-VAR extended joint connected approach to explore connectedness between WTI crude oil, gold, stock and cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 health crisis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    4. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2021. "Implied volatility indices – A review," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 303-329.
    5. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina & Liliana Nicoleta Simionescu, 2023. "Exploring the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic news on the cryptocurrency market: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and frequency domain causality," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-58, December.
    6. Bams, Dennis & Blanchard, Gildas & Lehnert, Thorsten, 2017. "Volatility measures and Value-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 848-863.
    7. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "How do Islamic equity markets respond to good and bad volatility of cryptocurrencies? The case of Bitcoin," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Gambarelli, Luca & Marchi, Gianluca & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2023. "Hedging effectiveness of cryptocurrencies in the European stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Zhu, Xuehong & Niu, Zibo & Zhang, Hongwei & Huang, Jiaxin & Zuo, Xuguang, 2022. "Can gold and bitcoin hedge against the COVID-19 related news sentiment risk? New evidence from a NARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Alam, Md Rafayet & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2024. "Gold-backed cryptocurrencies: A hedging tool against categorical and regional financial stress," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    12. Khaki, Audil & Prasad, Mason & Al-Mohamad, Somar & Bakry, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Re-evaluating portfolio diversification and design using cryptocurrencies: Are decentralized cryptocurrencies enough?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Guo, Xiaochun & Lu, Fengbin & Wei, Yunjie, 2021. "Capture the contagion network of bitcoin – Evidence from pre and mid COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Forecasting the KOSPI200 spot volatility using various volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 156-166.
    15. Plíhal, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2021. "Modeling realized volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate: Does implied volatility really matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 811-829.
    16. Ben Khelifa, Soumaya & Guesmi, Khaled & Urom, Christian, 2021. "Exploring the relationship between cryptocurrencies and hedge funds during COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Murad Samsudin, Najmi Ismail & Mohamad, Azhar & Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad, 2021. "Implied volatility of structured warrants: Emerging market evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 464-479.
    18. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. repec:eme:jalpps:jal-02-2023-0023 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Are the KOSPI 200 implied volatilities useful in value-at-risk models?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 43-64.
    21. Chemkha, Rahma & BenSaïda, Ahmed & Ghorbel, Ahmed & Tayachi, Tahar, 2021. "Hedge and safe haven properties during COVID-19: Evidence from Bitcoin and gold," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-85.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:62:y:2024:i:pb:s1544612324002502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.