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Pre-Season Precipitation and Temperature Have a Larger Influence on Vegetation Productivity than That of the Growing Season in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone in Northern China

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  • Yuanyuan Zhang

    (School of Landscape and Ecological Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056000, China
    State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Qingtao Wang

    (School of Landscape and Ecological Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056000, China)

  • Xueyuan Zhang

    (College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin University, Bentley 6102, Australia)

  • Zecheng Guo

    (Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Xiaonan Guo

    (School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei International Joint Research Center for Remote Sensing of Agricultural Drought Monitoring, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China)

  • Changhui Ma

    (State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Baocheng Wei

    (College of Geographical Science, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, China)

  • Lei He

    (State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract

Climate change and human activities are reshaping the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in vulnerable regions such as agro-pastoral ecotones. However, the extent to which climate change impacts vegetation growth in these areas remains poorly understood, largely due to the modifying effects of human-induced land cover changes on vegetation sensitivity to climatic variations. This study utilizes satellite-derived vegetation indices, land cover datasets, and climate data to investigate the influence of both land cover and climate changes on vegetation growth in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China (APENC) from 2001 to 2022. The results reveal that the sensitivity of vegetation productivity, as indicated by the kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI), varies depending on the land cover type to climate change in the APENC. Moreover, ridge regression modeling shows that pre-season climate conditions (i.e., pre-season precipitation and temperature) have a stronger positive impact on growing-season vegetation productivity than growing season precipitation and temperature, while the effect of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is negative. Notably, the kNDVI exhibits significant positive sensitivity ( p < 0.05) to precipitation in 34.12% of the region and significant negative sensitivity ( p < 0.05) to VPD in 38.80%. The ridge regression model explained 89.10% of the total variation (R 2 = 0.891). These findings not only emphasize the critical role of both historical and contemporary climate conditions in shaping vegetation growth but also provide valuable insights into how to adjust agricultural and animal husbandry management strategies to improve regional climate adaptation based on climate information from previous seasons in fragile regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanyuan Zhang & Qingtao Wang & Xueyuan Zhang & Zecheng Guo & Xiaonan Guo & Changhui Ma & Baocheng Wei & Lei He, 2025. "Pre-Season Precipitation and Temperature Have a Larger Influence on Vegetation Productivity than That of the Growing Season in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone in Northern China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:2:p:219-:d:1571369
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
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