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Precise Short-Term Small-Area Sunshine Forecasting for Optimal Seedbed Scheduling in Plant Factories

Author

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  • Liang Gong

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
    Key Laboratory of Intelligent Agricultural Technology (Yangtze River Delta), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Fei Huang

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Wei Zhang

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Yanming Li

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
    Key Laboratory of Intelligent Agricultural Technology (Yangtze River Delta), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Chengliang Liu

    (School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
    Key Laboratory of Intelligent Agricultural Technology (Yangtze River Delta), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 200240, China)

Abstract

Photosynthesis is one of the key issues for vertical cultivation in plant factories, and efficient natural sunlight utilization requires predicting the light falling on each seedbed in a real-time manner. However, public weather services neither provide sunshine data nor meet spatial resolution requirement. Facing these short-term and small-area weather forecasting challenges, we propose a cross-scale approach to infer seedbed-sized areas of sunshine from the city-level public weather services, and then design a seedbed rotation scheduling system for optimal natural sunlight utilization. First, an end-edge-cloud coordinated computing architecture was employed to concurrently aggregate the multi-scale data from weather satellites to sunshine sensors in the plant factory. Second, the small area of sunshine deterministically depends on the meteorological data given a fixed environment, and this correlation was described by a hybrid mapping model, which combined the long short-term memory (LSTM) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithms to form the LSTM-GBDT hybrid prediction algorithm (LGHPA). By training the LGHPA with historical local sensory sunshine and the city-scale meteorological data, the hourly sunshine on a seedbed can be predicted from the public weather forecasting service. Finally, a dynamic seedbed scheduling scheme was constructed to provide uniform solar energy absorption according to the one-hour-ahead radiation estimation. Experiment results show that the hourly sunshine prediction error was less than 18.44% over a seasonal period and the deviation for different solar absorption by seedbeds with rotation capability is less than 7.1%. Consequently, it was demonstrated that the application of short-term, small-area sunshine forecasting improved the performance of seedbed rotation for uniformly absorbed solar radiation. The proposed method verifies the feasibility of precisely predicting small-area sunshine down to the seedbed scale by leveraging a model-based approach and a cloud-edge-end merged cybernetic computing paradigm.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Gong & Fei Huang & Wei Zhang & Yanming Li & Chengliang Liu, 2023. "Precise Short-Term Small-Area Sunshine Forecasting for Optimal Seedbed Scheduling in Plant Factories," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:9:p:1790-:d:1236599
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Voyant, Cyril & Paoli, Christophe & Muselli, Marc & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2013. "Multi-horizon solar radiation forecasting for Mediterranean locations using time series models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 44-52.
    3. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, He & Wu, Yujie & Dong, Yao, 2015. "Forecasting solar radiation using an optimized hybrid model by Cuckoo Search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 627-644.
    4. Si-Ya Wang & Jun Qiu & Fang-Fang Li, 2018. "Hybrid Decomposition-Reconfiguration Models for Long-Term Solar Radiation Prediction Only Using Historical Radiation Records," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, May.
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