The State of Grain Trade between China and Russia: Analysis of Growth Effect and Its Influencing Factors

As two influential countries in the global grain production and marketing system, China and Russia have increasingly strengthened their agricultural, economic, and trade cooperation. There are few papers that have considered trade relations from the perspective of the growth effect of grain exports, and it is necessary to fill this gap by systematically sorting the grain trade between the two countries and clarifying the growth effect and influencing factors in this paper. By comparing and analyzing the quantitative and structural characteristics of grain trade between China and Russia between 1996 and 2020, this study used the H–K marginal analysis method to explore the growth path and influencing factors of the export trade of grain products between China and Russia. The results show that the main driving force of the export growth of Russian and Chinese grain products is the price margin, which presents a growth pattern dominated by price and complemented by type and quantity. The empirical analysis of the gravity model shows that the size of the agricultural economy, grain productivity, trade cost, and economic shocks have significant impacts on bilateral trade. In view of this, the status of international agricultural cooperation between China and Russia will be further optimized if they can optimize trade policies to improve the quality of trade development, build cross-border cooperation parks to construct the layout of the whole industrial chain, strengthen infrastructure construction, and deepen and expand interconnectivity.